Derio v Lagun Onak

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Derio win at 46%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Derio 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
3. 1′KICK-OFF Derio v Lagun Onak
4. 4′Lagun Onak score on 4′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 22–24–54
5. 4′We said Derio at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–24–54
6. 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Derio 0–1 Lagun Onak
7. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Derio win: 46% at kick-off, 22% now
8. 4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Lagun Onak win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Derio win 46%)
9. 15′We said Derio at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–56
10. 22′Derio find the net on 22′. 1–1. 1–1 · 42–32–25
11. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Derio 1–1 Lagun Onak
12. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Derio win: 46% at kick-off, 42% now
13. 22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Derio win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Lagun Onak win 58%)
14. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Derio win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
15. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Derio win 38%)
16. 45′HALF-TIME Derio 1–1 Lagun Onak
17. 46′A goal for Derio on 46′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 78–18–5
18. 46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Derio 2–1 Lagun Onak
19. 46′SECOND HALF Derio 2–1 Lagun Onak
20. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Derio win: 46% at kick-off, 78% now
21. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Derio win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 42%)
22. 48′We said Derio at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 2–1 · 78–17–5
23. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Derio win: 46% at kick-off, 78% now
24. 49′We said Derio at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–44–22 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
25. 49′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 78–17–4
26. 55′We said Derio at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–4
27. 69′We said Derio at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
28. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Derio win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
29. 78′We said Derio at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
30. 85′We said Derio at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
31. FTFULL TIME Derio 2–1 Lagun Onak
32. FTDerio 2–1 Lagun Onak · Derio win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.