Deportivo Alavés III v Leioa prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Deportivo Alavés III 2–2 Leioa DEPORTIVO ALAVÉS III WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo Alavés III win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.845

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Alavés III win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Alavés III 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–25–33
1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Alavés III v Leioa
17′A goal for Leioa on 17′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 18–22–60
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Deportivo Alavés III 0–1 Leioa
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Deportivo Alavés III win: 42% at kick-off, 18% now
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Leioa win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Deportivo Alavés III win 18%)
18′We said Deportivo Alavés III at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–22–60
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 15–23–62
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Deportivo Alavés III 0–2 Leioa
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Deportivo Alavés III win: 42% at kick-off, 4% now
31′Leioa score on 30′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 4–10–86
31′We said Deportivo Alavés III at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–86
45′HALF-TIME Deportivo Alavés III 0–2 Leioa
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Deportivo Alavés III win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
46′SECOND HALF Deportivo Alavés III 0–2 Leioa
49′Deportivo Alavés III find the net on 49′. 1–2. 1–2 · 10–23–67
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Deportivo Alavés III 1–2 Leioa
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Deportivo Alavés III win: 42% at kick-off, 10% now
50′We said Deportivo Alavés III at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–23–68
50′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 9–23–68
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Deportivo Alavés III win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
79′A goal for Deportivo Alavés III on 79′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 15–73–12
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Deportivo Alavés III 2–2 Leioa
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Deportivo Alavés III win: 42% at kick-off, 15% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Leioa win 12%)
80′We said Deportivo Alavés III at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–75–12
80′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 14–75–12
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Deportivo Alavés III win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME Deportivo Alavés III 2–2 Leioa
FTDeportivo Alavés III 2–2 Leioa · Deportivo Alavés III win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Alavés III are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Alavés III 42%, draw 25%, Leioa 33%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Alavés III v LeioaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Alavés III win42%

Draw25%

Leioa win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Alavés III

Leioa

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Leioa	6	+10	12
6	Deportivo Alavés III	6	+7	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo alavés iii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Deportivo Alavés III a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo Alavés III v Leioa~~1.52 – 1.31

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~6 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Alavés III win	42%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Leioa win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Deportivo Alavés III or draw	67%	–	–
Deportivo Alavés III clean sheet	27%	–	–
Leioa clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.3 7.7 5.1 2.3 1 8.9 11.7 7.5 3.3 2 6.8 8.7 5.6 2.5 3 3.5 4.4 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Alavés III down, Leioa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,596 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Alavés III at home: 2.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Leioa away: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Deportivo Alavés III, 1.31 for Leioa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LEI 1–1 DEP · DEP 0–1 LEI · DEP 1–1 LEI · LEI 1–0 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept

DEPORTIVO ALAVÉS III

DWLLWW1–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 5–1 · 2–0

LEIOA

DDDWWW1–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aurrerá Vitoria	7	+4	16
2	Leioa	6	+10	12
3	Derio	6	+5	12
4	Aretxabaleta	6	+3	11
5	Real Sociedad III	7	+1	11
6	Deportivo Alavés III	6	+7	10
7	Pasaia KE	6	−1	10
8	San Ignacio	6	+2	8
9	Touring	6	+1	8
10	Sodupe	6	−4	8
11	Durango	6	0	7
12	Beasain	6	−1	7
13	Lagun Onak	6	−3	7
14	Erandio	6	−2	6
15	Santurtzi	6	−4	6
16	Eibar III	6	−1	5
17	R. Union B	6	−5	5
18	Amurrio Club	6	−12	1