Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 › Beasain v R. Union B

Back
Spain flag

Beasain v R. Union B

Beasain
1–1Full time
R. Union B

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17
Beasain 1–1 R. Union B BEASAIN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Beasain win68%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.138

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 6 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Beasain win at 68%.
  2. 46′R. Union B score on 79′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 52–34–14
  3. 79′We said Beasain at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 1–1 · 22–71–8
  4. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Beasain win: 68% at kick-off, 22% now
  5. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Beasain win 52%)
  6. 81′We said Beasain at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–75–7
  7. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Beasain win: 68% at kick-off, 19% now
  8. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Beasain win: 68% at kick-off, 17% now
  9. 84′We said Beasain at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–82–5
  10. 88′We said Beasain at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–87–3
  11. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Beasain win: 68% at kick-off, 8% now
  12. 93′We said Beasain at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–95–1
  13. FTFULL TIME Beasain 1–1 R. Union B
  14. FTBeasain 1–1 R. Union B · Beasain win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Beasain are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Beasain 68%, draw 19%, R. Union B 14%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Beasain v R. Union BBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Beasain win68%
Draw19%
R. Union B win14%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Beasain

R. Union B

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
10Beasain7+210
17R. Union B7−75

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · beasain winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
68% The market–
Us68%

We make Beasain a 68% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Beasain v R. Union B2.24 – 0.86
Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 12 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 10 v 510 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Beasain win68%––
Draw19%––
R. Union B win14%––
Over 2.5 goals59%––
Both teams to score51%––
Over 1.5 goals81%––
Over 3.5 goals37%––
Beasain or draw86%––
Beasain clean sheet43%––
R. Union B clean sheet12%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.1%
0123450 5.0 4.1 1 10.2 8.7 3.8 2 11.1 9.3 4.0 3 8.2 6.8 2.9 4 4.7 3.9 5 2.2
under 2% 5% 12%+Beasain down, R. Union B across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 12 Sept

BEASAIN

DLLLWW0–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 4–2 · 4–1

R. UNION B

WDDLLL1–0 · 3–3 · 3–3 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Aurrerá Vitoria7+416
2Aretxabaleta7+514
3Leioa7+1013
4Derio7+312
5Deportivo Alavés III7+711
6San Ignacio7+311
7Touring7+311
8Real Sociedad III7+111
9Sodupe7−311
10Beasain7+210
11Durango7+110
12Pasaia KE7−410
13Eibar III708
14Lagun Onak7−47
15Erandio7−36
16Santurtzi7−56
17R. Union B7−75
18Amurrio Club7−131

The competition's standings before kick-off.