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Beasain v Lagun Onak

Beasain

4–2Full time

Lagun Onak

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Beasain 4–2 Lagun Onak BEASAIN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Beasain win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.430

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Beasain win46%

Draw27%

Lagun Onak win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · beasain winPublished 10 Oct 18:18

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Beasain a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Beasain win	46%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Lagun Onak win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Beasain or draw	74%	–	–
Beasain clean sheet	38%	–	–
Lagun Onak clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.6%

0123450 9.8 8.8 4.5 1 12.6 12.6 6.1 2.0 2 9.0 8.6 4.2 3 4.3 4.1 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Beasain down, Lagun Onak across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,587 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.9% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.83 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Beasain at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Lagun Onak away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Beasain, 0.98 for Lagun Onak. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BEA 1–0 LAG · LAG 1–1 BEA · BEA 2–0 LAG · LAG 0–1 BEA

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

BEASAIN

DWDLLL0–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–2

LAGUN ONAK

LDLWWL0–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aurrerá Vitoria	5	+6	13
2	Derio	5	+5	11
3	Pasaia KE	5	+1	10
4	Leioa	5	+6	9
5	Real Sociedad III	5	+2	8
6	Touring	5	+2	8
7	Aretxabaleta	5	+1	8
8	Deportivo Alavés III	5	+5	7
9	Lagun Onak	5	−1	7
10	Durango	5	0	6
11	Erandio	5	0	6
12	San Ignacio	5	+1	5
13	Eibar III	5	0	5
14	R. Union B	5	−4	5
15	Sodupe	5	−5	5
16	Beasain	5	−3	4
17	Santurtzi	5	−5	3
18	Amurrio Club	5	−11	1