Aurrerá Vitoria v Santurtzi prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Aurrerá VitoriaDrawSanturtzi

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Aurrerá Vitoria 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aurrerá Vitoria are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aurrerá Vitoria 48%, draw 27%, Santurtzi 26%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Aurrerá Vitoria v SanturtziBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Aurrerá Vitoria win48%

Draw27%

Santurtzi win26%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aurrerá Vitoria

Santurtzi

7Days since last match13

Last match: 24 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Aurrerá Vitoria	8	−1	16
16	Santurtzi	7	−5	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aurrerá vitoria winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Aurrerá Vitoria a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aurrerá Vitoria v Santurtzi~~1.45 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 16 v 6~~2 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aurrerá Vitoria win	48%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Santurtzi win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Aurrerá Vitoria or draw	74%	–	–
Aurrerá Vitoria clean sheet	38%	–	–
Santurtzi clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 9.3 8.6 4.3 1 12.7 12.4 6.0 2 9.2 8.8 4.3 3 4.5 4.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aurrerá Vitoria down, Santurtzi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,611 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.8% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aurrerá Vitoria at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Santurtzi away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Aurrerá Vitoria, 0.98 for Santurtzi. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~AUR 1–0 SAN · SAN 1–2 AUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept

AURRERÁ VITORIA

WWWLWL2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 2–0 · 0–5

SANTURTZI

WLLLWL2–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Leioa	8	+13	16
2	Aurrerá Vitoria	8	−1	16
3	Derio	8	+4	15
4	San Ignacio	8	+8	14
5	Aretxabaleta	7	+5	14
6	Touring	8	+4	14
7	Durango	8	+3	13
8	Deportivo Alavés III	7	+7	11
9	Beasain	8	+2	11
10	Real Sociedad III	7	+1	11
11	Sodupe	8	−6	11
12	Pasaia KE	8	−6	10
13	Eibar III	7	0	8
14	Lagun Onak	8	−5	7
15	Erandio	8	−4	6
16	Santurtzi	7	−5	6
17	R. Union B	8	−7	6
18	Amurrio Club	7	−13	1