Aurrerá Vitoria v Real Sociedad III prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56

Aurrerá Vitoria 2–0 Real Sociedad III AURRERÁ VITORIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aurrerá Vitoria win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.530

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aurrerá Vitoria win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Aurrerá Vitoria 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–33
1′KICK-OFF Aurrerá Vitoria v Real Sociedad III
27′Aurrerá Vitoria find the net on 27′. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–11
27′We said Aurrerá Vitoria at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–20–11
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Aurrerá Vitoria 1–0 Real Sociedad III
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Aurrerá Vitoria win: 41% at kick-off, 69% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 69–20–10
31′We said Aurrerá Vitoria at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Aurrerá Vitoria win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
45′HALF-TIME Aurrerá Vitoria 1–0 Real Sociedad III
46′SECOND HALF Aurrerá Vitoria 1–0 Real Sociedad III
55′We said Aurrerá Vitoria at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
67′We said Aurrerá Vitoria at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Aurrerá Vitoria win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
75′We said Aurrerá Vitoria at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
81′We said Aurrerá Vitoria at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Aurrerá Vitoria win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
88′A goal for Aurrerá Vitoria on 88′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Aurrerá Vitoria 2–0 Real Sociedad III
89′We said Aurrerá Vitoria at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Aurrerá Vitoria 2–0 Real Sociedad III
FTAurrerá Vitoria 2–0 Real Sociedad III · Aurrerá Vitoria win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aurrerá Vitoria are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aurrerá Vitoria 41%, draw 26%, Real Sociedad III 33%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Aurrerá Vitoria v Real Sociedad IIIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Aurrerá Vitoria win41%

Draw26%

Real Sociedad III win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aurrerá Vitoria

Real Sociedad III

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aurrerá vitoria winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Aurrerá Vitoria a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aurrerá Vitoria v Real Sociedad III~~1.43 – 1.27

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 11~~1 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aurrerá Vitoria win	41%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Real Sociedad III win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Aurrerá Vitoria or draw	67%	–	–
Aurrerá Vitoria clean sheet	29%	–	–
Real Sociedad III clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.2 8.5 5.4 2.3 1 9.5 12.1 7.5 3.2 2 6.9 8.5 5.3 2.3 3 3.3 4.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aurrerá Vitoria down, Real Sociedad III across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,596 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aurrerá Vitoria at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Real Sociedad III away: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Aurrerá Vitoria, 1.27 for Real Sociedad III. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~REA 0–1 AUR · AUR 0–3 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 5 Sept

AURRERÁ VITORIA

WDWWWL2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 0–4

REAL SOCIEDAD III

DWLDWW0–0 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 3–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aurrerá Vitoria	6	+2	13
2	Leioa	6	+10	12
3	Derio	6	+5	12
4	Real Sociedad III	6	+3	11
5	Aretxabaleta	6	+3	11
6	Deportivo Alavés III	6	+7	10
7	Pasaia KE	6	−1	10
8	San Ignacio	6	+2	8
9	Touring	6	+1	8
10	Sodupe	6	−4	8
11	Durango	6	0	7
12	Beasain	6	−1	7
13	Lagun Onak	6	−3	7
14	Erandio	6	−2	6
15	Santurtzi	6	−4	6
16	Eibar III	6	−1	5
17	R. Union B	6	−5	5
18	Amurrio Club	6	−12	1