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Aretxabaleta v Pasaia KE

Aretxabaleta

4–2Full time

Pasaia KE

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Aretxabaleta 4–2 Pasaia KE ARETXABALETA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aretxabaleta win~~55%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.309

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.457

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aretxabaleta win at 55%.
1′KICK-OFF Aretxabaleta v Pasaia KE
3′Aretxabaleta find the net on 3′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–14–8
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Aretxabaleta 1–0 Pasaia KE
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Aretxabaleta win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Aretxabaleta win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Aretxabaleta win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
6′Aretxabaleta find the net on 3′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–14–8
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Aretxabaleta win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Aretxabaleta 1–1 Pasaia KE
20′A goal for Pasaia KE on 19′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 51–28–22
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Aretxabaleta win: 55% at kick-off, 51% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Aretxabaleta win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
22′A goal for Pasaia KE on 19′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 50–28–22
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Aretxabaleta win: 55% at kick-off, 51% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Aretxabaleta win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Aretxabaleta 1–2 Pasaia KE
32′⚽ GOAL · 3' Aretxabaleta 1–2 Pasaia KE
32′⚽ GOAL · 19' Aretxabaleta 1–2 Pasaia KE
32′⚽ GOAL · 28' Aretxabaleta 1–2 Pasaia KE
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Aretxabaleta 2–2 Pasaia KE
45′HALF-TIME Aretxabaleta 2–2 Pasaia KE
46′SECOND HALF Aretxabaleta 2–2 Pasaia KE
63′⚽ GOAL · 3' Aretxabaleta 2–2 Pasaia KE
63′⚽ GOAL · 19' Aretxabaleta 2–2 Pasaia KE
63′⚽ GOAL · 28' Aretxabaleta 2–2 Pasaia KE
63′⚽ GOAL · 46' Aretxabaleta 2–2 Pasaia KE
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Aretxabaleta 3–2 Pasaia KE
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Aretxabaleta 3–2 Pasaia KE
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Aretxabaleta 4–2 Pasaia KE
FTFULL TIME Aretxabaleta 4–2 Pasaia KE
FTAretxabaleta 4–2 Pasaia KE · Aretxabaleta win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Aretxabaleta win55%

Draw24%

Pasaia KE win22%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Aretxabaleta

Pasaia KE

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Pasaia KE	5	+1	10
9	Aretxabaleta	5	+1	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aretxabaleta winPublished 11 Oct 15:30

55% The market45%

Us55%

~~Market~~45%

We make Aretxabaleta a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · aretxabaleta win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aretxabaleta win	55%	45%	+10
Draw	24%	28%	−4
Pasaia KE win	22%	27%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	53%	49%	+4
Both teams to score	53%	53%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	72%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	31%	29%	+2
Aretxabaleta or draw	78%	73%	+6
Aretxabaleta clean sheet	36%	–	–
Pasaia KE clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 6.5 6.2 3.2 1 10.6 11.0 5.6 2 9.5 9.5 4.9 3 5.6 5.7 2.9 4 2.6 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aretxabaleta down, Pasaia KE across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,595 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.2% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aretxabaleta at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Pasaia KE away: 0.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Aretxabaleta, 1.03 for Pasaia KE. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~PAS 3–2 ARE · ARE 1–0 PAS · ARE 2–1 PAS · PAS 1–3 ARE

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

ARETXABALETA

WWDDLW3–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–1

PASAIA KE

LLDWWW0–3 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aurrerá Vitoria	6	+2	13
2	Leioa	6	+10	12
3	Derio	6	+5	12
4	Real Sociedad III	6	+3	11
5	Deportivo Alavés III	6	+7	10
6	Pasaia KE	5	+1	10
7	San Ignacio	6	+2	8
8	Touring	6	+1	8
9	Aretxabaleta	5	+1	8
10	Sodupe	6	−4	8
11	Durango	6	0	7
12	Beasain	6	−1	7
13	Lagun Onak	6	−3	7
14	Erandio	6	−2	6
15	Santurtzi	6	−4	6
16	Eibar III	6	−1	5
17	R. Union B	6	−5	5
18	Amurrio Club	6	−12	1