Aretxabaleta v Eibar III prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AretxabaletaDrawEibar III

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Aretxabaleta 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aretxabaleta are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aretxabaleta 51%, draw 22%, Eibar III 27%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Aretxabaleta v Eibar IIIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Aretxabaleta win51%

Draw22%

Eibar III win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aretxabaleta

Eibar III

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Aretxabaleta	7	+5	14
13	Eibar III	7	0	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aretxabaleta winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Aretxabaleta a 51% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aretxabaleta v Eibar III~~1.96 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 8~~2 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aretxabaleta win	51%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Eibar III win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Aretxabaleta or draw	73%	–	–
Aretxabaleta clean sheet	26%	–	–
Eibar III clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.9 5.0 3.4 1 7.1 9.6 6.4 3.0 2 6.9 9.1 6.2 2.8 3 4.5 5.9 4.0 4 2.2 3.0 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aretxabaleta down, Eibar III across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,611 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.8% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aretxabaleta at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Eibar III away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for Aretxabaleta, 1.37 for Eibar III. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~EIB 4–2 ARE · ARE 4–0 EIB · ARE 0–1 EIB · EIB 0–0 ARE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept

ARETXABALETA

DDLWWW0–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 2–0

EIBAR III

DWLLLW1–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Aurrerá Vitoria	7	+4	16
2	Aretxabaleta	7	+5	14
3	Leioa	7	+10	13
4	Derio	7	+3	12
5	Deportivo Alavés III	7	+7	11
6	San Ignacio	7	+3	11
7	Touring	7	+3	11
8	Real Sociedad III	7	+1	11
9	Sodupe	7	−3	11
10	Beasain	7	+2	10
11	Durango	7	+1	10
12	Pasaia KE	7	−4	10
13	Eibar III	7	0	8
14	Lagun Onak	7	−4	7
15	Erandio	7	−3	6
16	Santurtzi	7	−5	6
17	R. Union B	7	−7	5
18	Amurrio Club	7	−13	1