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Vimenor v Laredo

Vimenor

0–2Full time

Laredo

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Vimenor 0–2 Laredo LAREDO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Laredo win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.576

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Laredo win at 38%.
2′Much as we predicted: Laredo was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 33–29–39
9′Much as we predicted: Laredo was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 32–30–38
33′Laredo find the net on 26′. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–21–71
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Laredo win: 38% at kick-off, 35% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Laredo win: 38% at kick-off, 71% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Laredo win: 38% at kick-off, 35% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Laredo win: 38% at kick-off, 71% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Laredo win: 38% at kick-off, 35% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Laredo win: 38% at kick-off, 71% now
45′Laredo find the net on 26′. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–20–74
45′We published Laredo at 38%. Our model now makes it 74%. 0–1 · 6–20–74
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Laredo win: 38% at kick-off, 35% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Laredo win: 38% at kick-off, 71% now
45′HALF-TIME Vimenor 0–1 Laredo
46′SECOND HALF Vimenor 0–1 Laredo
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Vimenor 0–2 Laredo
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Laredo win: 38% at kick-off, 74% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Laredo win: 38% at kick-off, 74% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Laredo win: 38% at kick-off, 74% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Laredo win: 38% at kick-off, 74% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Laredo win: 38% at kick-off, 74% now
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Laredo win: 38% at kick-off, 74% now
86′⚽ GOAL · 26' Vimenor 0–2 Laredo
86′⚽ GOAL · 49' Vimenor 0–2 Laredo
89′⚽ GOAL · 26' Vimenor 0–2 Laredo
89′⚽ GOAL · 49' Vimenor 0–2 Laredo
FTFULL TIME Vimenor 0–2 Laredo
FTVimenor 0–2 Laredo · Laredo win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Vimenor win32%

Draw30%

Laredo win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · laredo winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Laredo a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vimenor win	32%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Laredo win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Vimenor or draw	62%	–	–
Vimenor clean sheet	30%	–	–
Laredo clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 11.3 11.5 7.4 3.0 1 10.3 13.9 7.9 3.2 2 5.9 7.1 4.2 3 2.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vimenor down, Laredo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,449 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.9% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vimenor at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Laredo away: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Vimenor, 1.20 for Laredo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LAR 2–1 VIM · VIM 1–0 LAR · LAR 0–0 VIM · VIM 1–0 LAR

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

VIMENOR

LWWWDL1–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 0–1

LAREDO

DLWWWW0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tropezón	5	+9	15
2	Bezana	5	+8	15
3	Laredo	5	+10	12
4	Vimenor	5	+4	10
5	Cayón	5	+3	10
6	Torina	5	+6	9
7	Sámano	5	+6	8
8	Revilla	5	+4	8
9	Selaya	5	−2	7
10	Atlético Mineros	5	−7	6
11	Castro	5	−2	5
12	Escobedo	5	−4	5
13	Guarnizo	5	−3	4
14	Solares	5	−3	4
15	Velarde	5	−5	4
16	Atlético Albericia	5	−6	1
17	Naval Reinosa	5	−9	1
18	Barquereño	5	−9	1