Velarde v Torina prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VelardeDrawTorina

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Torina 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Torina are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Velarde 24%, draw 28%, Torina 48%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Velarde v TorinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Velarde win24%

Draw28%

Torina win48%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:15

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Velarde

Torina

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Torina	7	+6	11
17	Velarde	7	−9	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · torina winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Torina a 48% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Velarde v Torina~~0.93 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 11~~17 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Velarde win	24%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Torina win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Velarde or draw	52%	–	–
Velarde clean sheet	24%	–	–
Torina clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.4 12.6 9.7 4.7 1 7.8 13.1 8.8 4.3 2 4.1 5.7 4.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Velarde down, Torina across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,468 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Velarde at home: 0.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Torina away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Velarde, 1.45 for Torina. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TOR 0–0 VEL · VEL 1–1 TOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 13 Sept

VELARDE

WLLLLL1–0 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–4

TORINA

WWDDDD3–0 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tropezón	7	+10	19
2	Laredo	7	+14	18
3	Bezana	7	+6	16
4	Revilla	7	+6	14
5	Cayón	7	+5	14
6	Vimenor	7	+3	13
7	Sámano	7	+8	12
8	Torina	7	+6	11
9	Atlético Mineros	8	−6	10
10	Castro	7	−1	8
11	Selaya	7	−4	7
12	Solares	7	−3	6
13	Atlético Albericia	8	−4	6
14	Guarnizo	7	−5	5
15	Escobedo	7	−8	5
16	Barquereño	7	−8	5
17	Velarde	7	−9	4
18	Naval Reinosa	7	−10	2