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Tropezón v Atlético Mineros

Tropezón

2–1Full time

Atlético Mineros

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Tropezón 2–1 Atlético Mineros TROPEZÓN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tropezón win~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.118

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tropezón win at 72%.
2′Much as we predicted: Tropezón was 72% before kick-off and our model makes it 73% now. 0–0 · 73–18–9
6′Much as we predicted: Tropezón was 72% before kick-off and our model makes it 72% now. 0–0 · 72–19–10
29′A goal for Tropezón on 25′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 89–9–2
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Tropezón win: 72% at kick-off, 89% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Tropezón win: 72% at kick-off, 66% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Tropezón win: 72% at kick-off, 89% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Tropezón win: 72% at kick-off, 66% now
45′29′ and it is 1–1: Atlético Mineros have scored. 1–1 · 56–33–11
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Tropezón win: 72% at kick-off, 89% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Tropezón win: 72% at kick-off, 66% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Tropezón win: 72% at kick-off, 56% now
45′HALF-TIME Tropezón 1–1 Atlético Mineros
46′SECOND HALF Tropezón 1–1 Atlético Mineros
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Tropezón win: 72% at kick-off, 56% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Tropezón win: 72% at kick-off, 56% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Tropezón win: 72% at kick-off, 56% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Tropezón win: 72% at kick-off, 56% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Tropezón win: 72% at kick-off, 56% now
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Tropezón win: 72% at kick-off, 56% now
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Tropezón 2–1 Atlético Mineros
86′⚽ GOAL · 25' Tropezón 2–1 Atlético Mineros
86′⚽ GOAL · 29' Tropezón 2–1 Atlético Mineros
86′⚽ GOAL · 63' Tropezón 2–1 Atlético Mineros
89′⚽ GOAL · 25' Tropezón 2–1 Atlético Mineros
89′⚽ GOAL · 29' Tropezón 2–1 Atlético Mineros
89′⚽ GOAL · 63' Tropezón 2–1 Atlético Mineros
FTFULL TIME Tropezón 2–1 Atlético Mineros
FTTropezón 2–1 Atlético Mineros · Tropezón win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tropezón win72%

Draw18%

Atlético Mineros win9%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tropezón winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

72% The market–

Us72%

We make Tropezón a 72% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–0.6, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tropezón win	72%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Atlético Mineros win	9%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Tropezón or draw	91%	–	–
Tropezón clean sheet	52%	–	–
Atlético Mineros clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.9%

0123450 6.4 3.3 1 12.2 8.7 2.7 2 13.9 8.9 2.9 3 10.2 6.6 2.1 4 5.7 3.7 5 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Tropezón down, Atlético Mineros across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,449 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.9% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tropezón at home: 1.83 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Atlético Mineros away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.22 goals for Tropezón, 0.65 for Atlético Mineros. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ATL 0–5 TRO · TRO 4–1 ATL · ATL 0–1 TRO · TRO 4–1 ATL

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

TROPEZÓN

DWWWWW0–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–0

ATLÉTICO MINEROS

WWLLWL2–1 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tropezón	5	+9	15
2	Bezana	5	+8	15
3	Laredo	5	+10	12
4	Vimenor	5	+4	10
5	Cayón	5	+3	10
6	Torina	5	+6	9
7	Sámano	5	+6	8
8	Revilla	5	+4	8
9	Selaya	5	−2	7
10	Atlético Mineros	5	−7	6
11	Castro	5	−2	5
12	Escobedo	5	−4	5
13	Guarnizo	5	−3	4
14	Solares	5	−3	4
15	Velarde	5	−5	4
16	Atlético Albericia	5	−6	1
17	Naval Reinosa	5	−9	1
18	Barquereño	5	−9	1