Tropezón v Atlético Albericia prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Tropezón 0–0 Atlético Albericia TROPEZÓN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tropezón win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.871

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tropezón win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tropezón 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–26–22
1′KICK-OFF Tropezón v Atlético Albericia
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Tropezón win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
45′HALF-TIME Tropezón 0–0 Atlético Albericia
46′We said Tropezón at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 40–39–20
46′SECOND HALF Tropezón 0–0 Atlético Albericia
48′We said Tropezón at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–41–20
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Tropezón win 38%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 36–45–19
58′We said Tropezón at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–48–18
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Tropezón win: 52% at kick-off, 32% now
66′We said Tropezón at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
72′We said Tropezón at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–63–13
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Tropezón win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
77′We said Tropezón at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–11
81′We said Tropezón at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–8
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Tropezón win: 52% at kick-off, 11% now
85′We said Tropezón at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
91′We said Tropezón at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Tropezón win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME Tropezón 0–0 Atlético Albericia
FTTropezón 0–0 Atlético Albericia · Tropezón win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tropezón are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tropezón 52%, draw 26%, Atlético Albericia 22%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Tropezón v Atlético AlbericiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tropezón win52%

Draw26%

Atlético Albericia win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tropezón

Atlético Albericia

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Tropezón	6	+10	18
15	Atlético Albericia	6	−4	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tropezón winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Tropezón a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tropezón v Atlético Albericia~~1.67 – 1.00

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 18 v 4~~2 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tropezón win	52%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Atlético Albericia win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Tropezón or draw	78%	–	–
Tropezón clean sheet	37%	–	–
Atlético Albericia clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.8 6.2 3.5 1 10.9 12.2 5.7 2 9.6 9.5 4.8 3 5.4 5.3 2.7 4 2.3 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tropezón down, Atlético Albericia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,462 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tropezón at home: 2.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Atlético Albericia away: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Tropezón, 1.00 for Atlético Albericia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ATL 0–1 TRO · TRO 1–0 ATL · TRO 1–0 ATL · ATL 2–0 TRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

TROPEZÓN

WWWWWW2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–1

ATLÉTICO ALBERICIA

LLLLDW1–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Laredo	7	+14	18
2	Tropezón	6	+10	18
3	Bezana	7	+6	16
4	Cayón	7	+5	14
5	Sámano	6	+8	11
6	Revilla	6	+5	11
7	Torina	6	+6	10
8	Vimenor	6	+2	10
9	Atlético Mineros	7	−6	9
10	Castro	7	−1	8
11	Selaya	6	−3	7
12	Solares	6	−3	5
13	Guarnizo	7	−5	5
14	Escobedo	7	−8	5
15	Atlético Albericia	6	−4	4
16	Barquereño	6	−8	4
17	Velarde	7	−9	4
18	Naval Reinosa	6	−9	2