Torina v Sámano prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Torina 1–1 Sámano TORINA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Torina win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.731

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Torina win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Torina was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–30–31
1′KICK-OFF Torina v Sámano
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Torina win 33%)
35′Sámano score on 35′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–23–67
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Torina 0–1 Sámano
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Torina win: 38% at kick-off, 10% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Sámano win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 23%)
36′We said Torina at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–23–67
37′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 10–23–67
39′We said Torina at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Torina win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
45′HALF-TIME Torina 0–1 Sámano
46′SECOND HALF Torina 0–1 Sámano
53′Torina find the net on 52′. 1–1. 1–1 · 28–49–23
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Torina 1–1 Sámano
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Torina win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Sámano win 23%)
56′We said Torina at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–51–23
61′We said Torina at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–55–21
70′We said Torina at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–65–16
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Torina win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Torina win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
89′We said Torina at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Torina 1–1 Sámano
FTTorina 1–1 Sámano · Torina win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Torina are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Torina 38%, draw 30%, Sámano 31%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Torina v SámanoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Torina win38%

Draw30%

Sámano win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:45

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Torina

Sámano

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Sámano	6	+8	11
7	Torina	6	+6	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · torina winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Torina a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Torina v Sámano~~1.20 – 1.05

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 11~~7 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Torina win	38%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Sámano win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Torina or draw	69%	–	–
Torina clean sheet	35%	–	–
Sámano clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 11.6 10.2 5.8 2.1 1 11.8 14.0 6.9 2.5 2 7.6 7.9 4.1 3 3.0 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Torina down, Sámano across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,462 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.88 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Torina at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sámano away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Torina, 1.05 for Sámano. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.88

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~TOR 2–1 SAM · SAM 1–1 TOR · SAM 1–1 TOR · TOR 2–1 SAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

TORINA

DWWDDD1–1 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

SÁMANO

DLWDWW2–2 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Laredo	7	+14	18
2	Tropezón	6	+10	18
3	Bezana	7	+6	16
4	Cayón	7	+5	14
5	Sámano	6	+8	11
6	Revilla	6	+5	11
7	Torina	6	+6	10
8	Vimenor	6	+2	10
9	Atlético Mineros	7	−6	9
10	Castro	7	−1	8
11	Selaya	6	−3	7
12	Solares	6	−3	5
13	Guarnizo	7	−5	5
14	Escobedo	7	−8	5
15	Atlético Albericia	6	−4	4
16	Barquereño	6	−8	4
17	Velarde	7	−9	4
18	Naval Reinosa	6	−9	2