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Solares v Barquereño

Solares

2–2Full time

Barquereño

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Solares 2–2 Barquereño SOLARES WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Solares win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.846

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Solares win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Solares 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–29
1′KICK-OFF Solares v Barquereño
8′A goal for Solares on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–17–12
8′We said Solares at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–17–12
8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Solares 1–0 Barquereño
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Solares win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
29′Barquereño score on 28′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 41–31–28
29′⚽ GOAL · 28' Solares 1–1 Barquereño
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Solares win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
45′HALF-TIME Solares 1–1 Barquereño
46′SECOND HALF Solares 1–1 Barquereño
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Solares win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
50′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–1 · 35–40–25
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Solares win 35%)
54′We said Solares at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–43–24
62′We said Solares at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–49–22
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Solares win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
70′We said Solares at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–58–18
73′Solares find the net on 72′. 2–1. 2–1 · 84–14–2
73′We said Solares at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 2–1 · 84–14–2
73′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 84–14–2
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Solares 2–1 Barquereño
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Solares win: 45% at kick-off, 84% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Solares win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
74′A goal for Barquereño on 74′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 21–63–16
74′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 21–63–16
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Solares 2–2 Barquereño
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Solares win: 45% at kick-off, 21% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Solares win 21%)
76′We said Solares at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–67–14
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Solares win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
81′We said Solares at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 13–76–10
85′We said Solares at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–84–7
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Solares win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
91′We said Solares at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–92–3
FTFULL TIME Solares 2–2 Barquereño
FTSolares 2–2 Barquereño · Solares win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Solares are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Solares 45%, draw 25%, Barquereño 29%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Solares v BarquereñoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Solares win45%

Draw25%

Barquereño win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Solares

Barquereño

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Solares	6	−3	5
16	Barquereño	6	−8	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · solares winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Solares a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Solares v Barquereño~~1.65 – 1.29

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 5 v 4~~12 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Solares win	45%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Barquereño win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Solares or draw	71%	–	–
Solares clean sheet	28%	–	–
Barquereño clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.2 6.2 4.4 1 8.1 11.8 7.1 3.1 2 7.3 9.1 5.8 2.5 3 4.0 5.0 3.2 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Solares down, Barquereño across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,462 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Solares at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Barquereño away: 0.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Solares, 1.29 for Barquereño. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

SOLARES

LLLWDD0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–2

BARQUEREÑO

DLLLLW2–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Laredo	7	+14	18
2	Tropezón	6	+10	18
3	Bezana	7	+6	16
4	Cayón	7	+5	14
5	Sámano	6	+8	11
6	Revilla	6	+5	11
7	Torina	6	+6	10
8	Vimenor	6	+2	10
9	Atlético Mineros	7	−6	9
10	Castro	7	−1	8
11	Selaya	6	−3	7
12	Solares	6	−3	5
13	Guarnizo	7	−5	5
14	Escobedo	7	−8	5
15	Atlético Albericia	6	−4	4
16	Barquereño	6	−8	4
17	Velarde	7	−9	4
18	Naval Reinosa	6	−9	2