Selaya v Vimenor prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Selaya 1–2 Vimenor VIMENOR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vimenor win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.458

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vimenor win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Vimenor was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 26–30–45
1′KICK-OFF Selaya v Vimenor
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Vimenor win 36%)
45′HALF-TIME Selaya 0–0 Vimenor
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Vimenor win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
46′SECOND HALF Selaya 0–0 Vimenor
48′We said Vimenor at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 21–45–33
57′We said Vimenor at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 19–51–29
65′A goal for Vimenor on 65′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 17–59–25
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Vimenor win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Selaya 1–1 Vimenor
66′We said Vimenor at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 16–60–24
66′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–1 · 16–60–24
67′Vimenor score on 67′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–84
67′We published Vimenor at 45%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–2 · 2–14–84
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Selaya 1–2 Vimenor
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Vimenor win: 45% at kick-off, 84% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Vimenor win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
68′We published Vimenor at 45%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
68′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 2–14–85
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Vimenor win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
78′We published Vimenor at 45%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
85′We published Vimenor at 45%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Vimenor win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
FTFULL TIME Selaya 1–2 Vimenor
FTSelaya 1–2 Vimenor · Vimenor win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vimenor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Selaya 26%, draw 29%, Vimenor 45%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Selaya v VimenorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Selaya win26%

Draw29%

Vimenor win45%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Selaya

Vimenor

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Vimenor	6	+2	10
11	Selaya	6	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vimenor winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Vimenor a 45% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Selaya v Vimenor~~0.94 – 1.33

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 10~~11 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Selaya win	26%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Vimenor win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Selaya or draw	55%	–	–
Selaya clean sheet	27%	–	–
Vimenor clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 11.3 12.9 9.1 4.1 1 8.9 13.5 8.4 3.7 2 4.6 6.0 3.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Selaya down, Vimenor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,462 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Selaya at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Vimenor away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for Selaya, 1.33 for Vimenor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~VIM 1–0 SEL · SEL 2–2 VIM · SEL 1–0 VIM · VIM 2–1 SEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

SELAYA

DLWLWL0–0 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 0–1

VIMENOR

WWWDLL1–0 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Laredo	7	+14	18
2	Tropezón	6	+10	18
3	Bezana	7	+6	16
4	Cayón	7	+5	14
5	Sámano	6	+8	11
6	Revilla	6	+5	11
7	Torina	6	+6	10
8	Vimenor	6	+2	10
9	Atlético Mineros	7	−6	9
10	Castro	7	−1	8
11	Selaya	6	−3	7
12	Solares	6	−3	5
13	Guarnizo	7	−5	5
14	Escobedo	7	−8	5
15	Atlético Albericia	6	−4	4
16	Barquereño	6	−8	4
17	Velarde	7	−9	4
18	Naval Reinosa	6	−9	2