Selaya v Cayón prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SelayaDrawCayón

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Cayón 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cayón are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Selaya 25%, draw 29%, Cayón 47%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Selaya v CayónBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Selaya win25%

Draw29%

Cayón win47%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 18:30

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Selaya

Cayón

12Days since last match13

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Cayón	7	+5	14
11	Selaya	7	−4	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cayón winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Cayón a 47% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Selaya v Cayón~~0.94 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 14~~11 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Selaya win	25%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Cayón win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Selaya or draw	53%	–	–
Selaya clean sheet	25%	–	–
Cayón clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.7 12.6 9.4 4.5 1 8.2 13.4 8.7 4.1 2 4.3 5.9 4.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Selaya down, Cayón across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,467 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.8% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Selaya at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Cayón away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for Selaya, 1.40 for Cayón. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SEL 0–2 CAY · CAY 1–0 SEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept

SELAYA

LWLWLL0–3 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–2

CAYÓN

WWDWDW1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tropezón	7	+10	19
2	Laredo	7	+14	18
3	Bezana	7	+6	16
4	Revilla	7	+6	14
5	Cayón	7	+5	14
6	Vimenor	7	+3	13
7	Sámano	7	+8	12
8	Torina	7	+6	11
9	Atlético Mineros	7	−6	9
10	Castro	7	−1	8
11	Selaya	7	−4	7
12	Solares	7	−3	6
13	Atlético Albericia	7	−4	5
14	Guarnizo	7	−5	5
15	Escobedo	7	−8	5
16	Barquereño	7	−8	5
17	Velarde	7	−9	4
18	Naval Reinosa	7	−10	2