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Sámano v Velarde

Sámano

2–0Full time

Velarde

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Sámano 2–0 Velarde SÁMANO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Sámano win~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.190

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sámano win65%

Draw22%

Velarde win13%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sámano winPublished 10 Oct 21:03

65% The market–

Us65%

We make Sámano a 65% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sámano win	65%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Velarde win	13%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Sámano or draw	87%	–	–
Sámano clean sheet	47%	–	–
Velarde clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.5%

0123450 7.3 4.5 1 12.2 10.3 3.8 2 12.5 9.4 3.6 3 8.2 6.2 2.4 4 4.1 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sámano down, Velarde across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,449 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.9% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sámano at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Velarde away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.97 goals for Sámano, 0.77 for Velarde. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VEL 1–1 SAM · SAM 1–3 VEL

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

SÁMANO

DDLWDW1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 4–0

VELARDE

LDWLLL0–3 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tropezón	5	+9	15
2	Bezana	5	+8	15
3	Laredo	5	+10	12
4	Vimenor	5	+4	10
5	Cayón	5	+3	10
6	Torina	5	+6	9
7	Sámano	5	+6	8
8	Revilla	5	+4	8
9	Selaya	5	−2	7
10	Atlético Mineros	5	−7	6
11	Castro	5	−2	5
12	Escobedo	5	−4	5
13	Guarnizo	5	−3	4
14	Solares	5	−3	4
15	Velarde	5	−5	4
16	Atlético Albericia	5	−6	1
17	Naval Reinosa	5	−9	1
18	Barquereño	5	−9	1