Sámano v Bezana prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SámanoDrawBezana

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sámano 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sámano are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sámano 45%, draw 28%, Bezana 26%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Sámano v BezanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sámano win45%

Draw28%

Bezana win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sámano

Bezana

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Bezana	7	+6	16
7	Sámano	7	+8	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sámano winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Sámano a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sámano v Bezana~~1.43 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 16~~7 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sámano win	45%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Bezana win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Sámano or draw	74%	–	–
Sámano clean sheet	36%	–	–
Bezana clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.6 7.9 4.5 1 11.4 13.4 6.4 2.2 2 8.8 8.9 4.6 3 4.2 4.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sámano down, Bezana across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,468 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sámano at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Bezana away: 2.17 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Sámano, 1.02 for Bezana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SAM 1–0 BEZ · BEZ 0–1 SAM · BEZ 1–2 SAM · SAM 2–2 BEZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept

SÁMANO

LWDWWD1–2 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

BEZANA

WWWWDL3–0 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tropezón	7	+10	19
2	Laredo	7	+14	18
3	Bezana	7	+6	16
4	Revilla	7	+6	14
5	Cayón	7	+5	14
6	Vimenor	7	+3	13
7	Sámano	7	+8	12
8	Torina	7	+6	11
9	Atlético Mineros	8	−6	10
10	Castro	7	−1	8
11	Selaya	7	−4	7
12	Solares	7	−3	6
13	Atlético Albericia	8	−4	6
14	Guarnizo	7	−5	5
15	Escobedo	7	−8	5
16	Barquereño	7	−8	5
17	Velarde	7	−9	4
18	Naval Reinosa	7	−10	2