Revilla v Naval Reinosa prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31

Revilla 3–2 Naval Reinosa REVILLA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Revilla win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.324

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Revilla are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Revilla 54%, draw 23%, Naval Reinosa 24%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Revilla v Naval ReinosaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Revilla win54%

Draw23%

Naval Reinosa win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Revilla

Naval Reinosa

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Revilla	6	+5	11
18	Naval Reinosa	6	−9	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · revilla winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Revilla a 54% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Revilla v Naval Reinosa~~2.02 – 1.28

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 11 v 2~~6 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Revilla win	54%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Naval Reinosa win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Revilla or draw	76%	–	–
Revilla clean sheet	28%	–	–
Naval Reinosa clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.6 4.3 3.1 1 7.0 10.0 6.0 2.6 2 7.4 9.3 5.9 2.6 3 5.0 6.2 3.9 4 2.6 3.2 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Revilla down, Naval Reinosa across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,462 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Revilla at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Naval Reinosa away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

2.02 goals for Revilla, 1.28 for Naval Reinosa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

REVILLA

WWDLDW2–0 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 3–2

NAVAL REINOSA

DLLLLD0–0 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Laredo	7	+14	18
2	Tropezón	6	+10	18
3	Bezana	7	+6	16
4	Cayón	7	+5	14
5	Sámano	6	+8	11
6	Revilla	6	+5	11
7	Torina	6	+6	10
8	Vimenor	6	+2	10
9	Atlético Mineros	7	−6	9
10	Castro	7	−1	8
11	Selaya	6	−3	7
12	Solares	6	−3	5
13	Guarnizo	7	−5	5
14	Escobedo	7	−8	5
15	Atlético Albericia	6	−4	4
16	Barquereño	6	−8	4
17	Velarde	7	−9	4
18	Naval Reinosa	6	−9	2