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Naval Reinosa v Solares

Naval Reinosa

2–2Full time

Solares

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Naval Reinosa 2–2 Solares NAVAL REINOSA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Naval Reinosa win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.810

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Naval Reinosa win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Naval Reinosa 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–35
1′KICK-OFF Naval Reinosa v Solares
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Naval Reinosa 1–0 Solares
45′HALF-TIME Naval Reinosa 1–0 Solares
46′SECOND HALF Naval Reinosa 1–0 Solares
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Naval Reinosa 1–1 Solares
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Naval Reinosa 1–2 Solares
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Naval Reinosa 2–2 Solares
FTFULL TIME Naval Reinosa 2–2 Solares
FTNaval Reinosa 2–2 Solares · Naval Reinosa win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Naval Reinosa win39%

Draw27%

Solares win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · naval reinosa winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Naval Reinosa a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Naval Reinosa win	39%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Solares win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Naval Reinosa or draw	66%	–	–
Naval Reinosa clean sheet	27%	–	–
Solares clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.3 7.6 5.5 2.5 1 8.3 12.3 7.7 3.5 2 6.5 8.3 5.5 2.5 3 3.2 4.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Naval Reinosa down, Solares across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,449 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.9% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Naval Reinosa at home: 0.00 scored, 3.50 conceded a game (last 2). Solares away: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Naval Reinosa, 1.34 for Solares. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

NAVAL REINOSA

DLLLL0–0 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 0–4 · 2–3

SOLARES

LLLLWD2–4 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tropezón	5	+9	15
2	Bezana	5	+8	15
3	Laredo	5	+10	12
4	Vimenor	5	+4	10
5	Cayón	5	+3	10
6	Torina	5	+6	9
7	Sámano	5	+6	8
8	Revilla	5	+4	8
9	Selaya	5	−2	7
10	Atlético Mineros	5	−7	6
11	Castro	5	−2	5
12	Escobedo	5	−4	5
13	Guarnizo	5	−3	4
14	Solares	5	−3	4
15	Velarde	5	−5	4
16	Atlético Albericia	5	−6	1
17	Naval Reinosa	5	−9	1
18	Barquereño	5	−9	1