Naval Reinosa v Castro prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Naval ReinosaDrawCastro

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Castro 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Castro are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Naval Reinosa 30%, draw 26%, Castro 44%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Naval Reinosa v CastroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Naval Reinosa win30%

Draw26%

Castro win44%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Naval Reinosa

Castro

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Castro	7	−1	8
18	Naval Reinosa	7	−10	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · castro winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Castro a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Naval Reinosa v Castro~~1.32 – 1.64

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 13 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 2 v 8~~18 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Naval Reinosa win	30%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Castro win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Naval Reinosa or draw	56%	–	–
Naval Reinosa clean sheet	20%	–	–
Castro clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.3 7.8 7.0 3.9 1 6.2 11.8 8.9 4.9 2.1 2 4.6 7.2 5.8 3.2 3 2.0 3.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Naval Reinosa down, Castro across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,468 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Naval Reinosa at home: 0.67 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 3). Castro away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Naval Reinosa, 1.64 for Castro. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 13 Sept

NAVAL REINOSA

LLLLDL0–3 · 2–3 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 2–3

CASTRO

WDLLLW2–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tropezón	7	+10	19
2	Laredo	7	+14	18
3	Bezana	7	+6	16
4	Revilla	7	+6	14
5	Cayón	7	+5	14
6	Vimenor	7	+3	13
7	Sámano	7	+8	12
8	Torina	7	+6	11
9	Atlético Mineros	8	−6	10
10	Castro	7	−1	8
11	Selaya	7	−4	7
12	Solares	7	−3	6
13	Atlético Albericia	8	−4	6
14	Guarnizo	7	−5	5
15	Escobedo	7	−8	5
16	Barquereño	7	−8	5
17	Velarde	7	−9	4
18	Naval Reinosa	7	−10	2