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Laredo v Guarnizo

Laredo

4–2Full time

Guarnizo

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:08

Laredo 4–2 Guarnizo LAREDO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Laredo win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.316

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Laredo win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Laredo was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–29–17
1′KICK-OFF Laredo v Guarnizo
6′A goal for Laredo on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–13–5
6′We published Laredo at 55%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–5
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Laredo 1–0 Guarnizo
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Laredo win: 55% at kick-off, 83% now
13′Guarnizo score on 13′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 52–31–17
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Laredo 1–1 Guarnizo
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Laredo win: 55% at kick-off, 52% now
32′Guarnizo find the net on 32′. 1–2. 1–2 · 18–28–54
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Laredo 1–2 Guarnizo
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Laredo win: 55% at kick-off, 18% now
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Guarnizo win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Laredo win 18%)
33′We said Laredo at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 1–2 · 17–28–55
34′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 17–28–55
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Laredo win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
41′We said Laredo at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–28–58
45′HALF-TIME Laredo 1–2 Guarnizo
46′SECOND HALF Laredo 1–2 Guarnizo
47′A goal for Laredo on 47′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 40–45–16
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Laredo 2–2 Guarnizo
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Laredo win: 55% at kick-off, 40% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Guarnizo win 16%)
48′We said Laredo at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 2–2 · 39–46–15
49′GOAL DISALLOWED · 49' Laredo
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Laredo win: 55% at kick-off, 11% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Guarnizo win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Draw 27%)
50′A goal for Laredo on 50′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 38–47–15
50′4 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 38–47–15
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Laredo 2–2 Guarnizo
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Laredo win: 55% at kick-off, 38% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Guarnizo win 15%)
56′Laredo score on 56′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 86–12–2
56′We published Laredo at 55%. Our model now makes it 86%. 3–2 · 86–12–2
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Laredo 3–2 Guarnizo
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Laredo win: 55% at kick-off, 86% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Laredo win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 12%)
57′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 86–12–2
71′We published Laredo at 55%. Our model now makes it 90%. 3–2 · 90–9–1
75′Laredo find the net on 75′. 4–2. 4–2 · 99–0–0
75′We published Laredo at 55%. Our model now makes it 99%. 4–2 · 99–0–0
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Laredo 4–2 Guarnizo
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Laredo win: 55% at kick-off, 99% now
76′We published Laredo at 55%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
76′6 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Laredo 4–2 Guarnizo
FTLaredo 4–2 Guarnizo · Laredo win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Laredo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Laredo 55%, draw 28%, Guarnizo 17%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Laredo v GuarnizoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Laredo win55%

Draw28%

Guarnizo win17%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:30

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Laredo

Guarnizo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Laredo	6	+12	15
11	Guarnizo	6	−3	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · laredo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Laredo a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Laredo v Guarnizo~~1.46 – 0.70

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 6 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 5~~3 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Laredo win	55%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Guarnizo win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Laredo or draw	83%	–	–
Laredo clean sheet	50%	–	–
Guarnizo clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.2%

0123450 12.6 7.3 2.8 1 16.2 12.4 4.1 2 12.3 8.4 3.0 3 6.0 4.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Laredo down, Guarnizo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,458 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Laredo at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Guarnizo away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Laredo, 0.70 for Guarnizo. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~GUA 2–3 LAR · LAR 2–0 GUA · GUA 1–0 LAR · LAR 1–0 GUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 6 Sept

LAREDO

LWWWWW1–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 2–0

GUARNIZO

LLLWDD1–2 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tropezón	6	+10	18
2	Bezana	6	+8	16
3	Laredo	6	+12	15
4	Sámano	6	+8	11
5	Revilla	6	+5	11
6	Cayón	6	+3	11
7	Torina	6	+6	10
8	Vimenor	6	+2	10
9	Selaya	6	−3	7
10	Atlético Mineros	6	−8	6
11	Guarnizo	6	−3	5
12	Solares	6	−3	5
13	Castro	6	−4	5
14	Escobedo	6	−5	5
15	Atlético Albericia	6	−4	4
16	Velarde	6	−7	4
17	Barquereño	6	−8	4
18	Naval Reinosa	6	−9	2