Guarnizo v Selaya prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GuarnizoDrawSelaya

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Guarnizo 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guarnizo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Guarnizo 53%, draw 29%, Selaya 18%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Guarnizo v SelayaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Guarnizo win53%

Draw29%

Selaya win18%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Guarnizo

Selaya

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Selaya	7	−4	7
14	Guarnizo	7	−5	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guarnizo winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Guarnizo a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Guarnizo v Selaya~~1.43 – 0.73

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 5 v 7~~14 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guarnizo win	53%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Selaya win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Guarnizo or draw	82%	–	–
Guarnizo clean sheet	49%	–	–
Selaya clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.7%

0123450 12.5 7.5 3.1 1 15.7 12.7 4.4 2 11.8 8.5 3.1 3 5.7 4.1 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guarnizo down, Selaya across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,468 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guarnizo at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Selaya away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Guarnizo, 0.73 for Selaya. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SEL 0–3 GUA · GUA 2–1 SEL · GUA 4–1 SEL · SEL 1–1 GUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept

GUARNIZO

LLWDDL0–1 · 1–4 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–4

SELAYA

LWLWLL0–3 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tropezón	7	+10	19
2	Laredo	7	+14	18
3	Bezana	7	+6	16
4	Revilla	7	+6	14
5	Cayón	7	+5	14
6	Vimenor	7	+3	13
7	Sámano	7	+8	12
8	Torina	7	+6	11
9	Atlético Mineros	7	−6	9
10	Castro	7	−1	8
11	Selaya	7	−4	7
12	Solares	7	−3	6
13	Atlético Albericia	7	−4	5
14	Guarnizo	7	−5	5
15	Escobedo	7	−8	5
16	Barquereño	7	−8	5
17	Velarde	7	−9	4
18	Naval Reinosa	7	−10	2