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Guarnizo v Bezana

Guarnizo

1–1Full time

Bezana

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Guarnizo 1–1 Bezana GUARNIZO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Guarnizo win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.735

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Guarnizo win at 41%.
1′KICK-OFF Guarnizo v Bezana
3′Much as we predicted: Guarnizo was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–29–29
45′HALF-TIME Guarnizo 0–0 Bezana
46′SECOND HALF Guarnizo 0–0 Bezana
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Guarnizo 0–1 Bezana
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Guarnizo 1–1 Bezana
90′🟥 RED CARD · 94' Bezana
FTFULL TIME Guarnizo 1–1 Bezana
FTGuarnizo 1–1 Bezana · Guarnizo win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Guarnizo win41%

Draw30%

Bezana win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guarnizo winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Guarnizo a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guarnizo win	41%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Bezana win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Guarnizo or draw	71%	–	–
Guarnizo clean sheet	38%	–	–
Bezana clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 11.9 10.0 5.3 1 12.6 13.9 6.5 2.1 2 8.2 8.1 4.0 3 3.4 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guarnizo down, Bezana across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,449 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.9% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.33 goals a meeting; 0 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guarnizo at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Bezana away: 2.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Guarnizo, 0.98 for Bezana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BEZ 1–1 GUA · GUA 0–0 BEZ · GUA 1–1 BEZ · BEZ 0–1 GUA

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

GUARNIZO

LLLLWD0–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 3–1 · 1–1

BEZANA

DWWWWW1–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tropezón	5	+9	15
2	Bezana	5	+8	15
3	Laredo	5	+10	12
4	Vimenor	5	+4	10
5	Cayón	5	+3	10
6	Torina	5	+6	9
7	Sámano	5	+6	8
8	Revilla	5	+4	8
9	Selaya	5	−2	7
10	Atlético Mineros	5	−7	6
11	Castro	5	−2	5
12	Escobedo	5	−4	5
13	Guarnizo	5	−3	4
14	Solares	5	−3	4
15	Velarde	5	−5	4
16	Atlético Albericia	5	−6	1
17	Naval Reinosa	5	−9	1
18	Barquereño	5	−9	1