Cayón v Laredo prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CayónDrawLaredo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Laredo 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Laredo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cayón 32%, draw 30%, Laredo 39%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Cayón v LaredoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Cayón win32%

Draw30%

Laredo win39%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cayón

Laredo

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Laredo	7	+14	18
5	Cayón	7	+5	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · laredo winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Laredo a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cayón v Laredo~~1.11 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 18~~5 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cayón win	32%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Laredo win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Cayón or draw	61%	–	–
Cayón clean sheet	29%	–	–
Laredo clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 10.5 10.9 7.4 3.1 1 9.6 13.9 8.1 3.4 2 5.8 7.2 4.5 3 2.2 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cayón down, Laredo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,468 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cayón at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Laredo away: 1.50 scored, 0.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Cayón, 1.25 for Laredo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CAY 0–2 LAR · LAR 0–2 CAY · LAR 1–0 CAY · CAY 1–0 LAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept

CAYÓN

WWDWDW1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0

LAREDO

WWWWWW2–0 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tropezón	7	+10	19
2	Laredo	7	+14	18
3	Bezana	7	+6	16
4	Revilla	7	+6	14
5	Cayón	7	+5	14
6	Vimenor	7	+3	13
7	Sámano	7	+8	12
8	Torina	7	+6	11
9	Atlético Mineros	7	−6	9
10	Castro	7	−1	8
11	Selaya	7	−4	7
12	Solares	7	−3	6
13	Atlético Albericia	7	−4	5
14	Guarnizo	7	−5	5
15	Escobedo	7	−8	5
16	Barquereño	7	−8	5
17	Velarde	7	−9	4
18	Naval Reinosa	7	−10	2