Castro v Escobedo prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Castro 3–0 Escobedo ESCOBEDO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Escobedo win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.681

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Escobedo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Castro 33%, draw 27%, Escobedo 40%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Castro v EscobedoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Castro win33%

Draw27%

Escobedo win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Castro

Escobedo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Castro	6	−4	5
14	Escobedo	6	−5	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · escobedo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Escobedo a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Castro v Escobedo~~1.26 – 1.41

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 5~~13 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Castro win	33%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Escobedo win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Castro or draw	60%	–	–
Castro clean sheet	25%	–	–
Escobedo clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 7.8 9.0 6.9 3.2 1 8.0 13.0 8.6 4.0 2 5.5 7.7 5.4 2.5 3 2.4 3.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Castro down, Escobedo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,458 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.88 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Castro at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Escobedo away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Castro, 1.41 for Escobedo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~CAS 1–2 ESC · ESC 2–0 CAS · ESC 4–0 CAS · CAS 0–2 ESC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

CASTRO

DWDLLL0–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 2–4

ESCOBEDO

DLLWDL1–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tropezón	6	+10	18
2	Bezana	6	+8	16
3	Laredo	6	+12	15
4	Sámano	6	+8	11
5	Revilla	6	+5	11
6	Cayón	6	+3	11
7	Torina	6	+6	10
8	Vimenor	6	+2	10
9	Selaya	6	−3	7
10	Atlético Mineros	6	−8	6
11	Guarnizo	6	−3	5
12	Solares	6	−3	5
13	Castro	6	−4	5
14	Escobedo	6	−5	5
15	Atlético Albericia	6	−4	4
16	Velarde	6	−7	4
17	Barquereño	6	−8	4
18	Naval Reinosa	6	−9	2