Castro v Barquereño prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CastroDrawBarquereño

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Castro 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Castro are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Castro 55%, draw 24%, Barquereño 21%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Castro v BarquereñoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Castro win55%

Draw24%

Barquereño win21%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Castro

Barquereño

14Days since last match13

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Castro	7	−1	8
16	Barquereño	7	−8	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · castro winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Castro a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Castro v Barquereño~~1.88 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 8 v 5~~10 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Castro win	55%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Barquereño win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Castro or draw	79%	–	–
Castro clean sheet	33%	–	–
Barquereño clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.9 4.9 3.1 1 8.8 11.2 5.7 2.1 2 8.9 9.7 5.4 3 5.6 6.1 3.4 4 2.7 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Castro down, Barquereño across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,468 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Castro at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Barquereño away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Castro, 1.10 for Barquereño. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CAS 2–1 BAR · BAR 0–0 CAS · CAS 2–0 BAR · BAR 0–0 CAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 13 Sept

CASTRO

WDLLLW2–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 3–0

BARQUEREÑO

LLLLWD0–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tropezón	7	+10	19
2	Laredo	7	+14	18
3	Bezana	7	+6	16
4	Revilla	7	+6	14
5	Cayón	7	+5	14
6	Vimenor	7	+3	13
7	Sámano	7	+8	12
8	Torina	7	+6	11
9	Atlético Mineros	8	−6	10
10	Castro	7	−1	8
11	Selaya	7	−4	7
12	Solares	7	−3	6
13	Atlético Albericia	8	−4	6
14	Guarnizo	7	−5	5
15	Escobedo	7	−8	5
16	Barquereño	7	−8	5
17	Velarde	7	−9	4
18	Naval Reinosa	7	−10	2