Bezana v Cayón prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:11

Bezana 0–2 Cayón BEZANA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bezana win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.683

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bezana win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bezana was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–33
1′KICK-OFF Bezana v Cayón
4′Cayón score on 4′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 17–21–62
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Bezana 0–1 Cayón
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Bezana win: 39% at kick-off, 17% now
4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Cayón win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Bezana win 17%)
5′We said Bezana at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–21–62
20′We said Bezana at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–63
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 12–23–65
43′We said Bezana at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Bezana win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
45′HALF-TIME Bezana 0–1 Cayón
46′SECOND HALF Bezana 0–1 Cayón
63′We said Bezana at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
85′Cayón find the net on 85′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Bezana 0–2 Cayón
FTFULL TIME Bezana 0–2 Cayón
FTBezana 0–2 Cayón · Bezana win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bezana are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bezana 39%, draw 28%, Cayón 33%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Bezana v CayónBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bezana win39%

Draw28%

Cayón win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:30

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bezana

Cayón

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Bezana	6	+8	16
6	Cayón	6	+3	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bezana winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Bezana a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bezana v Cayón~~1.33 – 1.20

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 11~~2 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bezana win	39%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Cayón win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Bezana or draw	67%	–	–
Bezana clean sheet	30%	–	–
Cayón clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.0 8.8 5.7 2.3 1 9.8 13.4 7.5 3.0 2 7.1 8.3 5.0 2.0 3 3.1 3.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bezana down, Cayón across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,458 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bezana at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Cayón away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Bezana, 1.20 for Cayón. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BEZ 0–1 CAY · CAY 2–1 BEZ · CAY 3–2 BEZ · BEZ 1–0 CAY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

BEZANA

WWWWWD2–1 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

CAYÓN

LWWDWD0–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tropezón	6	+10	18
2	Bezana	6	+8	16
3	Laredo	6	+12	15
4	Sámano	6	+8	11
5	Revilla	6	+5	11
6	Cayón	6	+3	11
7	Torina	6	+6	10
8	Vimenor	6	+2	10
9	Selaya	6	−3	7
10	Atlético Mineros	6	−8	6
11	Guarnizo	6	−3	5
12	Solares	6	−3	5
13	Castro	6	−4	5
14	Escobedo	6	−5	5
15	Atlético Albericia	6	−4	4
16	Velarde	6	−7	4
17	Barquereño	6	−8	4
18	Naval Reinosa	6	−9	2