Barquereño v Selaya prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Barquereño 1–0 Selaya BARQUEREÑO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Barquereño win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.494

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Barquereño win43%

Draw27%

Selaya win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Barquereño

Selaya

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Selaya	5	−2	7
18	Barquereño	5	−9	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · barquereño winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Barquereño a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barquereño win	43%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Selaya win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Barquereño or draw	70%	–	–
Barquereño clean sheet	30%	–	–
Selaya clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.8 7.5 5.0 2.1 1 9.3 12.8 7.2 3.0 2 7.4 8.8 5.3 2.2 3 3.7 4.4 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barquereño down, Selaya across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,456 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Barquereño at home: 0.50 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Selaya away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Barquereño, 1.21 for Selaya. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BAR 2–2 SEL · SEL 0–0 BAR

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

BARQUEREÑO

LDLLLL1–5 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–3

SELAYA

WDLWLW4–2 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tropezón	6	+10	18
2	Bezana	6	+8	16
3	Laredo	6	+12	15
4	Sámano	6	+8	11
5	Revilla	6	+5	11
6	Cayón	5	+3	10
7	Vimenor	6	+2	10
8	Torina	5	+6	9
9	Selaya	5	−2	7
10	Atlético Mineros	6	−8	6
11	Guarnizo	6	−3	5
12	Solares	6	−3	5
13	Castro	6	−4	5
14	Escobedo	6	−5	5
15	Atlético Albericia	6	−4	4
16	Velarde	6	−7	4
17	Naval Reinosa	6	−9	2
18	Barquereño	5	−9	1