Barquereño v Revilla prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BarquereñoDrawRevilla

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Barquereño 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Barquereño are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barquereño 43%, draw 24%, Revilla 33%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Barquereño v RevillaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Barquereño win43%

Draw24%

Revilla win33%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barquereño

Revilla

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Revilla	7	+6	14
16	Barquereño	7	−8	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · barquereño winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Barquereño a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Barquereño v Revilla~~1.77 – 1.52

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 14~~16 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barquereño win	43%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Revilla win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Barquereño or draw	67%	–	–
Barquereño clean sheet	22%	–	–
Revilla clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 4.5 5.0 4.4 2.2 1 5.9 10.7 7.6 3.9 2 5.8 8.7 6.6 3.4 3 3.4 5.2 3.9 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barquereño down, Revilla across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,467 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.8% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Barquereño at home: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Revilla away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for Barquereño, 1.52 for Revilla. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~REV 1–1 BAR · BAR 1–0 REV · REV 0–0 BAR · BAR 2–1 REV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 13 Sept

BARQUEREÑO

LLLLWD0–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 2–2

REVILLA

WDLDWW4–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tropezón	7	+10	19
2	Laredo	7	+14	18
3	Bezana	7	+6	16
4	Revilla	7	+6	14
5	Cayón	7	+5	14
6	Vimenor	7	+3	13
7	Sámano	7	+8	12
8	Torina	7	+6	11
9	Atlético Mineros	7	−6	9
10	Castro	7	−1	8
11	Selaya	7	−4	7
12	Solares	7	−3	6
13	Atlético Albericia	7	−4	5
14	Guarnizo	7	−5	5
15	Escobedo	7	−8	5
16	Barquereño	7	−8	5
17	Velarde	7	−9	4
18	Naval Reinosa	7	−10	2