Atlético Mineros v Velarde prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Atlético Mineros 4–2 Velarde ATLÉTICO MINEROS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atlético Mineros win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.469

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atlético Mineros win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Atlético Mineros 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
1′KICK-OFF Atlético Mineros v Velarde
21′A goal for Atlético Mineros on 21′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–18–10
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Atlético Mineros 1–0 Velarde
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Atlético Mineros win: 44% at kick-off, 72% now
22′We said Atlético Mineros at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–18–9
25′Velarde score on 25′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 40–32–27
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Atlético Mineros 1–1 Velarde
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Atlético Mineros win: 44% at kick-off, 40% now
42′Atlético Mineros find the net on 42′. 2–1. 2–1 · 75–19–7
42′We said Atlético Mineros at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–19–7
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Atlético Mineros 2–1 Velarde
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Atlético Mineros win: 44% at kick-off, 75% now
43′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 75–19–6
45′HALF-TIME Atlético Mineros 2–1 Velarde
46′SECOND HALF Atlético Mineros 2–1 Velarde
62′We said Atlético Mineros at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Atlético Mineros win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
73′We said Atlético Mineros at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
80′We said Atlético Mineros at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
81′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 91–9–1
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Atlético Mineros 3–2 Velarde
82′Velarde score on 81′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 92–8–0
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Atlético Mineros win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
87′We said Atlético Mineros at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–2 · 95–5–0
88′Atlético Mineros find the net on 87′. 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
88′We said Atlético Mineros at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Atlético Mineros 4–2 Velarde
89′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Atlético Mineros 4–2 Velarde
FTAtlético Mineros 4–2 Velarde · Atlético Mineros win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atlético Mineros are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlético Mineros 44%, draw 27%, Velarde 29%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Atlético Mineros v VelardeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Atlético Mineros win44%

Draw27%

Velarde win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlético Mineros

Velarde

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Atlético Mineros	6	−8	6
16	Velarde	6	−7	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlético mineros winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Atlético Mineros a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlético Mineros v Velarde~~1.47 – 1.13

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 4~~10 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlético Mineros win	44%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Velarde win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Atlético Mineros or draw	71%	–	–
Atlético Mineros clean sheet	33%	–	–
Velarde clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.4 7.7 4.8 1 10.1 12.9 6.9 2.6 2 8.0 8.9 5.0 3 3.9 4.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético Mineros down, Velarde across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,458 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlético Mineros at home: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Velarde away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Atlético Mineros, 1.13 for Velarde. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ATL 4–3 VEL · VEL 2–2 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

ATLÉTICO MINEROS

WLLWLL2–1 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–4 · 1–2

VELARDE

DWLLLL0–0 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tropezón	6	+10	18
2	Bezana	6	+8	16
3	Laredo	6	+12	15
4	Sámano	6	+8	11
5	Revilla	6	+5	11
6	Cayón	6	+3	11
7	Torina	6	+6	10
8	Vimenor	6	+2	10
9	Selaya	6	−3	7
10	Atlético Mineros	6	−8	6
11	Guarnizo	6	−3	5
12	Solares	6	−3	5
13	Castro	6	−4	5
14	Escobedo	6	−5	5
15	Atlético Albericia	6	−4	4
16	Velarde	6	−7	4
17	Barquereño	6	−8	4
18	Naval Reinosa	6	−9	2