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Atlético Albericia v Castro

Atlético Albericia

4–2Full time

Castro

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:46

Atlético Albericia 4–2 Castro ATLÉTICO ALBERICIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atlético Albericia win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.352

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atlético Albericia win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Atlético Albericia was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–24
9′Much as we predicted: Atlético Albericia was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–26–24
44′We published Atlético Albericia at 52%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–17–5
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Atlético Albericia win: 52% at kick-off, 78% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Atlético Albericia win: 52% at kick-off, 46% now
46′SECOND HALF Atlético Albericia 1–0 Castro
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Atlético Albericia win: 52% at kick-off, 78% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Atlético Albericia win: 52% at kick-off, 46% now
47′⚽ GOAL · 40' Atlético Albericia 1–1 Castro
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Atlético Albericia 1–1 Castro
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Atlético Albericia win: 52% at kick-off, 78% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Atlético Albericia win: 52% at kick-off, 46% now
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Atlético Albericia 2–1 Castro
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Atlético Albericia 3–1 Castro
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Atlético Albericia 4–1 Castro
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Atlético Albericia 4–2 Castro
FTFULL TIME Atlético Albericia 4–2 Castro
FTAtlético Albericia 4–2 Castro · Atlético Albericia win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Atlético Albericia win52%

Draw25%

Castro win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:15

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlético albericia winPublished 10 Oct 19:30

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Atlético Albericia a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlético Albericia win	52%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Castro win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Atlético Albericia or draw	77%	–	–
Atlético Albericia clean sheet	35%	–	–
Castro clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.1 6.0 3.6 1 10.0 12.0 6.0 2.2 2 9.1 9.6 5.1 3 5.2 5.5 2.9 4 2.2 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético Albericia down, Castro across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,449 Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.9% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlético Albericia at home: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Castro away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Atlético Albericia, 1.07 for Castro. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CAS 0–2 ATL · ATL 2–0 CAS · ATL 2–1 CAS · CAS 0–2 ATL

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3

ATLÉTICO ALBERICIA

LLLLLD2–4 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–2

CASTRO

LDWDLL0–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tropezón	5	+9	15
2	Bezana	5	+8	15
3	Laredo	5	+10	12
4	Vimenor	5	+4	10
5	Cayón	5	+3	10
6	Torina	5	+6	9
7	Sámano	5	+6	8
8	Revilla	5	+4	8
9	Selaya	5	−2	7
10	Atlético Mineros	5	−7	6
11	Castro	5	−2	5
12	Escobedo	5	−4	5
13	Guarnizo	5	−3	4
14	Solares	5	−3	4
15	Velarde	5	−5	4
16	Atlético Albericia	5	−6	1
17	Naval Reinosa	5	−9	1
18	Barquereño	5	−9	1