Sporting Gijón II v Colunga prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Sporting Gijón II 4–0 Colunga SPORTING GIJÓN II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sporting Gijón II win~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.096

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sporting Gijón II win at 75%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sporting Gijón II was 75% before kick-off and our model makes it 75% now. 0–0 · 75–16–9
1′KICK-OFF Sporting Gijón II v Colunga
14′A red card for Colunga on 14′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 71–18–10
14′A goal for Sporting Gijón II on 14′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 90–7–3
14′🟥 RED CARD · 14' Colunga
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Sporting Gijón II 1–0 Colunga
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Sporting Gijón II win: 75% at kick-off, 90% now
15′We published Sporting Gijón II at 75%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–7–3
21′We published Sporting Gijón II at 75%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–0 · 89–8–3
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 89–8–2
31′Sporting Gijón II score on 31′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
31′We published Sporting Gijón II at 75%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Sporting Gijón II 2–0 Colunga
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Sporting Gijón II win: 75% at kick-off, 98% now
42′Sporting Gijón II find the net on 42′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Sporting Gijón II 3–0 Colunga
43′We published Sporting Gijón II at 75%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME Sporting Gijón II 3–0 Colunga
46′SECOND HALF Sporting Gijón II 3–0 Colunga
75′A goal for Sporting Gijón II on 74′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
75′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Sporting Gijón II 4–0 Colunga
FTFULL TIME Sporting Gijón II 4–0 Colunga
FTSporting Gijón II 4–0 Colunga · Sporting Gijón II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sporting Gijón II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting Gijón II 75%, draw 16%, Colunga 9%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Sporting Gijón II v ColungaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sporting Gijón II win75%

Draw16%

Colunga win9%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting Gijón II

Colunga

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Sporting Gijón II	6	+5	14
6	Colunga	6	+2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sporting gijón ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

75% The market–

Us75%

We make Sporting Gijón II a 75% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sporting Gijón II v Colunga~~2.64 – 0.80

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 11~~2 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting Gijón II win	75%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Colunga win	9%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Sporting Gijón II or draw	91%	–	–
Sporting Gijón II clean sheet	45%	–	–
Colunga clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.0%

0123450 4.0 2.5 1 8.4 7.3 2.8 2 11.0 8.6 3.5 3 9.4 7.3 3.0 4 6.2 4.8 5 3.5 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting Gijón II down, Colunga across0–5 goals a side shown (93.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sporting Gijón II at home: 2.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Colunga away: 1.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.64 goals for Sporting Gijón II, 0.80 for Colunga. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~COL 0–5 SPO · SPO 7–0 COL · COL 2–2 SPO · SPO 1–1 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

SPORTING GIJÓN II

WWWWDD2–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

COLUNGA

WWWLDD2–1 · 2–1 · 4–3 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 5–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Condal	6	+8	14
2	Sporting Gijón II	6	+5	14
3	Covadonga	6	+8	13
4	Mosconia	6	+7	12
5	Siero	6	+6	12
6	Colunga	6	+2	11
7	Caudal	6	+2	11
8	Lealtad	6	+2	10
9	Praviano	6	+2	8
10	Gijón Industrial	6	+2	8
11	San Martín	6	−3	8
12	Avilés Stadium	6	−6	6
13	Langreo	6	−3	5
14	Ceares	6	−4	4
15	L'Entregu	6	−7	4
16	Astur	6	−5	3
17	Llanes	6	−7	3
18	Andes	6	−9	1