Siero v Sporting Gijón II prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:15

Siero 1–2 Sporting Gijón II SPORTING GIJÓN II WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sporting Gijón II win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.250

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sporting Gijón II win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sporting Gijón II was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 17–24–59
1′KICK-OFF Siero v Sporting Gijón II
12′Sporting Gijón II score on 12′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 5–12–83
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Siero 0–1 Sporting Gijón II
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Sporting Gijón II win: 59% at kick-off, 83% now
13′We published Sporting Gijón II at 59%. Our model now makes it 83%. 0–1 · 5–12–83
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 4–13–83
45′HALF-TIME Siero 0–1 Sporting Gijón II
47′SECOND HALF Siero 0–1 Sporting Gijón II
53′Sporting Gijón II find the net on 52′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Siero 0–2 Sporting Gijón II
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Sporting Gijón II win: 59% at kick-off, 98% now
54′We published Sporting Gijón II at 59%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Sporting Gijón II win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
78′We published Sporting Gijón II at 59%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
82′A red card for Siero on 82′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–2 · 0–0–100
82′🟥 RED CARD · 82' Siero
86′A goal for Siero on 86′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–4–96
86′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–4–96
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Siero 1–2 Sporting Gijón II
FTFULL TIME Siero 1–2 Sporting Gijón II
FTSiero 1–2 Sporting Gijón II · Sporting Gijón II win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sporting Gijón II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Siero 17%, draw 24%, Sporting Gijón II 59%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Siero v Sporting Gijón IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Siero win17%

Draw24%

Sporting Gijón II win59%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:45

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Siero

Sporting Gijón II

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sporting gijón ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Sporting Gijón II a 59% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.8, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Siero v Sporting Gijón II~~0.83 – 1.81

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 12 v 17~~5 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sporting Gijón II win

Published at 56%, 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Siero win	17%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Sporting Gijón II win	59%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Siero or draw	41%	–	–
Siero clean sheet	17%	–	–
Sporting Gijón II clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.2 12.3 11.5 7.0 3.3 1 5.5 11.2 9.2 5.5 2.6 2 2.6 4.4 3.8 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Siero down, Sporting Gijón II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,607 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Siero at home: 1.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting Gijón II away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.83 goals for Siero, 1.81 for Sporting Gijón II. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SIE 0–4 SPO · SPO 2–2 SIE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 13 Sept

SIERO

WWWLWL2–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–4

SPORTING GIJÓN II

WWWDDW3–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting Gijón II	7	+9	17
2	Covadonga	7	+12	16
3	Condal	7	+8	15
4	Mosconia	7	+3	12
5	Siero	7	+3	12
6	Caudal	7	+2	12
7	Praviano	7	+5	11
8	Gijón Industrial	7	+3	11
9	Lealtad	7	+2	11
10	Colunga	7	−2	11
11	San Martín	7	−3	9
12	Avilés Stadium	7	−6	7
13	Langreo	7	−3	6
14	L'Entregu	7	−7	5
15	Ceares	7	−5	4
16	Astur	7	−5	4
17	Llanes	7	−7	4
18	Andes	7	−9	2