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Siero v L'Entregu

Siero

3–0Full time

L'Entregu

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Siero 3–0 L'Entregu SIERO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Siero win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.585

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Siero win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Siero was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–33
1′KICK-OFF Siero v L'Entregu
6′Much as we predicted: Siero was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–30–33
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Siero 1–0 L'Entregu
22′14′ and it is 1–0: Siero have scored. 1–0 · 69–21–10
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Siero win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Siero win: 38% at kick-off, 38% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Siero win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Siero win: 38% at kick-off, 38% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Siero win: 38% at kick-off, 38% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Siero win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Siero win: 38% at kick-off, 38% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Siero win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Siero win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Siero win: 38% at kick-off, 38% now
27′14′ and it is 1–0: Siero have scored. 1–0 · 70–21–9
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Siero win: 38% at kick-off, 38% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Siero win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Siero 2–0 L'Entregu
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Siero 3–0 L'Entregu
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Siero win: 38% at kick-off, 70% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Siero win: 38% at kick-off, 70% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Siero win: 38% at kick-off, 70% now
45′HALF-TIME Siero 3–0 L'Entregu
45′⚽ GOAL · 14' Siero 3–0 L'Entregu
45′⚽ GOAL · 29' Siero 3–0 L'Entregu
45′⚽ GOAL · 41' Siero 3–0 L'Entregu
46′SECOND HALF Siero 3–0 L'Entregu
47′⚽ GOAL · 14' Siero 3–0 L'Entregu
47′⚽ GOAL · 29' Siero 3–0 L'Entregu
47′⚽ GOAL · 41' Siero 3–0 L'Entregu
48′⚽ GOAL · 14' Siero 3–0 L'Entregu
48′⚽ GOAL · 29' Siero 3–0 L'Entregu
48′⚽ GOAL · 41' Siero 3–0 L'Entregu
52′⚽ GOAL · 14' Siero 3–0 L'Entregu
52′⚽ GOAL · 29' Siero 3–0 L'Entregu
52′⚽ GOAL · 41' Siero 3–0 L'Entregu
65′⚽ GOAL · 14' Siero 3–0 L'Entregu
65′⚽ GOAL · 29' Siero 3–0 L'Entregu
65′⚽ GOAL · 41' Siero 3–0 L'Entregu
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Siero 3–1 L'Entregu
FTFULL TIME Siero 3–0 L'Entregu
FTSiero 3–0 L'Entregu · Siero win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Siero win38%

Draw30%

L'Entregu win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · siero winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Siero a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Siero win	38%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
L'Entregu win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Siero or draw	68%	–	–
Siero clean sheet	34%	–	–
L'Entregu clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 11.5 10.6 6.1 2.2 1 11.6 13.6 7.0 2.6 2 7.3 7.6 4.1 3 2.9 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Siero down, L'Entregu across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,589 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Siero at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). L'Entregu away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Siero, 1.08 for L'Entregu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LEN 1–1 SIE · SIE 2–3 LEN

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

SIERO

LLWWWL0–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2

L'ENTREGU

WLWLLD2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Covadonga	5	+10	13
2	Sporting Gijón II	5	+5	13
3	Mosconia	5	+7	11
4	Condal	5	+6	11
5	Colunga	5	+2	10
6	Caudal	5	+2	10
7	Siero	5	+3	9
8	Langreo	5	+2	8
9	Gijón Industrial	5	+2	7
10	Lealtad	5	+1	7
11	San Martín	5	−5	5
12	Praviano	5	−2	4
13	L'Entregu	5	−4	4
14	Ceares	5	−4	3
15	Llanes	5	−6	3
16	Avilés Stadium	5	−7	3
17	Astur	5	−5	2
18	Andes	5	−7	1