San Martín v Praviano prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

San MartínDrawPraviano

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · San Martín 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with San Martín just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: San Martín 37%, draw 30%, Praviano 33%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on San Martín v PravianoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

San Martín win37%

Draw30%

Praviano win33%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Martín

Praviano

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Praviano	7	+5	11
11	San Martín	7	−3	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san martín winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make San Martín a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Martín v Praviano~~1.20 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 11~~11 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Martín win	37%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Praviano win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
San Martín or draw	67%	–	–
San Martín clean sheet	34%	–	–
Praviano clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 11.3 10.3 6.1 2.3 1 11.2 13.7 7.1 2.7 2 7.1 7.6 4.2 3 2.9 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Martín down, Praviano across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,607 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Martín at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Praviano away: 2.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for San Martín, 1.11 for Praviano. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SAN 0–1 PRA · PRA 0–0 SAN · SAN 1–1 PRA · PRA 0–0 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept

SAN MARTÍN

LDDWWD0–4 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 1–1

PRAVIANO

WLLDDW2–1 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 5–5 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting Gijón II	7	+9	17
2	Covadonga	7	+12	16
3	Condal	7	+8	15
4	Mosconia	7	+3	12
5	Siero	7	+3	12
6	Caudal	7	+2	12
7	Praviano	7	+5	11
8	Gijón Industrial	7	+3	11
9	Lealtad	7	+2	11
10	Colunga	7	−2	11
11	San Martín	7	−3	9
12	Avilés Stadium	7	−6	7
13	Langreo	7	−3	6
14	L'Entregu	7	−7	5
15	Ceares	7	−5	4
16	Astur	7	−5	4
17	Llanes	7	−7	4
18	Andes	7	−9	2