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San Martín v Covadonga

San Martín

4–2Full time

Covadonga

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

San Martín 4–2 Covadonga COVADONGA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Covadonga win~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.208

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Covadonga win at 64%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Covadonga 64% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 13–21–65
1′KICK-OFF San Martín v Covadonga
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' San Martín 0–1 Covadonga
5′Covadonga find the net on 4′. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–10–86
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Covadonga win: 64% at kick-off, 86% now
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Covadonga win: 64% at kick-off, 65% now
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Covadonga win: 64% at kick-off, 86% now
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Covadonga win: 64% at kick-off, 86% now
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Covadonga win: 64% at kick-off, 65% now
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Covadonga win: 64% at kick-off, 86% now
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Covadonga win: 64% at kick-off, 65% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Covadonga win: 64% at kick-off, 65% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Covadonga win: 64% at kick-off, 86% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Covadonga win: 64% at kick-off, 65% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Covadonga win: 64% at kick-off, 86% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Covadonga win: 64% at kick-off, 65% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Covadonga win: 64% at kick-off, 86% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Covadonga win: 64% at kick-off, 65% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Covadonga win: 64% at kick-off, 86% now
18′Covadonga find the net on 4′. 0–1. 0–1 · 3–11–86
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Covadonga win: 64% at kick-off, 65% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Covadonga win: 64% at kick-off, 86% now
19′⚽ GOAL · 4' San Martín 0–1 Covadonga
21′We said Covadonga at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 0–1 · 3–11–86
30′We said Covadonga at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 0–1 · 3–11–86
40′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 3–11–86
41′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 2–12–86
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Covadonga win: 64% at kick-off, 86% now
45′HALF-TIME San Martín 0–1 Covadonga
FTFULL TIME San Martín 4–2 Covadonga
FTSan Martín 4–2 Covadonga · Covadonga win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

San Martín win14%

Draw22%

Covadonga win64%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

San Martín

Covadonga

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Covadonga	5	+10	13
12	San Martín	5	−5	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · covadonga winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

64% The market–

Us64%

We make Covadonga a 64% chance to win. The model expects 0.7–1.9, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Martín win	14%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Covadonga win	64%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
San Martín or draw	36%	–	–
San Martín clean sheet	15%	–	–
Covadonga clean sheet	48%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.9%

0123450 7.9 12.9 12.6 8.1 4.1 1 4.9 10.2 9.0 5.8 2.9 2 2.0 3.7 3.4 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Martín down, Covadonga across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,593 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.1% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Martín at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Covadonga away: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.74 goals for San Martín, 1.94 for Covadonga. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SAN 0–2 COV · COV 3–1 SAN · COV 1–1 SAN · SAN 1–0 COV

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

SAN MARTÍN

WLLDDW1–0 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

COVADONGA

LWDWWW2–4 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Covadonga	5	+10	13
2	Sporting Gijón II	5	+5	13
3	Mosconia	6	+7	12
4	Siero	6	+6	12
5	Condal	5	+6	11
6	Colunga	6	+2	11
7	Caudal	5	+2	10
8	Lealtad	6	+2	10
9	Langreo	6	+1	8
10	Gijón Industrial	5	+2	7
11	Praviano	6	−2	5
12	San Martín	5	−5	5
13	Ceares	6	−4	4
14	L'Entregu	6	−7	4
15	Llanes	5	−6	3
16	Avilés Stadium	5	−7	3
17	Astur	5	−5	2
18	Andes	5	−7	1