Praviano v Siero prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Praviano 4–1 Siero PRAVIANO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Praviano win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.514

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Praviano win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Praviano was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–29–30
1′KICK-OFF Praviano v Siero
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Praviano win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Praviano 0–0 Siero
46′SECOND HALF Praviano 0–0 Siero
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Praviano win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
54′We said Praviano at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–48–23
55′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 29–48–23
64′We said Praviano at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–56–19
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Praviano win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
72′We said Praviano at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–65–15
78′We said Praviano at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–74–11
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Praviano win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
83′We said Praviano at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
87′Siero score on 87′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 0–6–94
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Praviano 0–1 Siero
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Praviano win: 41% at kick-off, under 1% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Siero win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
88′Praviano find the net on 88′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
88′We published Praviano at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Praviano 4–1 Siero
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Praviano win: 41% at kick-off, over 99% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Praviano win is now our likeliest result at over 99% (was Siero win under 1%)
FTFULL TIME Praviano 4–1 Siero
FTPraviano 4–1 Siero · Praviano win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Praviano are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Praviano 41%, draw 29%, Siero 30%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Praviano v SieroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Praviano win41%

Draw29%

Siero win30%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Praviano

Siero

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Siero	6	+6	12
9	Praviano	6	+2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · praviano winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Praviano a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Praviano v Siero~~1.33 – 1.08

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 12~~9 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Praviano win	41%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Siero win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Praviano or draw	70%	–	–
Praviano clean sheet	34%	–	–
Siero clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.1 9.1 5.3 1 11.3 13.2 6.8 2.5 2 7.8 8.2 4.4 3 3.5 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Praviano down, Siero across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Praviano at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Siero away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Praviano, 1.08 for Siero. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SIE 2–3 PRA · PRA 0–0 SIE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

PRAVIANO

LWLLDD1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 5–5

SIERO

LWWWLW0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Condal	6	+8	14
2	Sporting Gijón II	6	+5	14
3	Covadonga	6	+8	13
4	Mosconia	6	+7	12
5	Siero	6	+6	12
6	Colunga	6	+2	11
7	Caudal	6	+2	11
8	Lealtad	6	+2	10
9	Praviano	6	+2	8
10	Gijón Industrial	6	+2	8
11	San Martín	6	−3	8
12	Avilés Stadium	6	−6	6
13	Langreo	6	−3	5
14	Ceares	6	−4	4
15	L'Entregu	6	−7	4
16	Astur	6	−5	3
17	Llanes	6	−7	3
18	Andes	6	−9	1