Llanes v Andes prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 03:35

Llanes 1–1 Andes LLANES WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Llanes win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.896

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Llanes are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Llanes 52%, draw 25%, Andes 23%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Llanes v AndesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Llanes win52%

Draw25%

Andes win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Llanes

Andes

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Llanes	6	−7	3
18	Andes	6	−9	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · llanes winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:47 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Llanes a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Llanes v Andes~~1.77 – 1.08

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 3 v 1~~17 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Llanes win

Published at 50%, 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Llanes win	52%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Andes win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Llanes or draw	77%	–	–
Llanes clean sheet	35%	–	–
Andes clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 7.0 6.0 3.6 1 9.8 11.4 5.8 2.2 2 8.9 9.2 4.9 3 5.2 5.4 2.9 4 2.4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Llanes down, Andes across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Llanes at home: 1.33 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Andes away: 0.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for Llanes, 1.08 for Andes. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

LLANES

LLDDDL1–5 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

ANDES

LLDLLL1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Condal	6	+8	14
2	Sporting Gijón II	6	+5	14
3	Covadonga	6	+8	13
4	Mosconia	6	+7	12
5	Siero	6	+6	12
6	Colunga	6	+2	11
7	Caudal	6	+2	11
8	Lealtad	6	+2	10
9	Praviano	6	+2	8
10	Gijón Industrial	6	+2	8
11	San Martín	6	−3	8
12	Avilés Stadium	6	−6	6
13	Langreo	6	−3	5
14	Ceares	6	−4	4
15	L'Entregu	6	−7	4
16	Astur	6	−5	3
17	Llanes	6	−7	3
18	Andes	6	−9	1