Lealtad v Caudal prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Lealtad 0–0 Caudal LEALTAD WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lealtad win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.729

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lealtad win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lealtad 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–30–33
1′KICK-OFF Lealtad v Caudal
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Lealtad win 32%)
43′Caudal are down to ten from 43′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 29–43–27
43′🟥 RED CARD · 43' Caudal
45′HALF-TIME Lealtad 0–0 Caudal
46′SECOND HALF Lealtad 0–0 Caudal
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Lealtad win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
58′We said Lealtad at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–53–23
68′We said Lealtad at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–63–18
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Lealtad win: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
76′We said Lealtad at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–13
82′We said Lealtad at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Lealtad win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
89′We said Lealtad at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Lealtad 0–0 Caudal
FTLealtad 0–0 Caudal · Lealtad win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Lealtad just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Lealtad 36%, draw 30%, Caudal 33%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Lealtad v CaudalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lealtad win36%

Draw30%

Caudal win33%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lealtad

Caudal

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Caudal	6	+2	11
8	Lealtad	6	+2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lealtad winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Lealtad a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lealtad v Caudal~~1.14 – 1.08

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 11~~8 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lealtad win	36%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Caudal win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Lealtad or draw	67%	–	–
Lealtad clean sheet	35%	–	–
Caudal clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 12.1 11.0 6.3 2.3 1 11.7 13.6 6.9 2.6 2 7.1 7.3 3.9 3 2.8 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lealtad down, Caudal across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lealtad at home: 2.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Caudal away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Lealtad, 1.08 for Caudal. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CAU 1–3 LEA · LEA 1–2 CAU · LEA 0–0 CAU · CAU 2–1 LEA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

LEALTAD

WLLDWW1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

CAUDAL

WWLWDD3–0 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Condal	6	+8	14
2	Sporting Gijón II	6	+5	14
3	Covadonga	6	+8	13
4	Mosconia	6	+7	12
5	Siero	6	+6	12
6	Colunga	6	+2	11
7	Caudal	6	+2	11
8	Lealtad	6	+2	10
9	Praviano	6	+2	8
10	Gijón Industrial	6	+2	8
11	San Martín	6	−3	8
12	Avilés Stadium	6	−6	6
13	Langreo	6	−3	5
14	Ceares	6	−4	4
15	L'Entregu	6	−7	4
16	Astur	6	−5	3
17	Llanes	6	−7	3
18	Andes	6	−9	1