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Langreo v Llanes

Langreo
1–0Full time
Llanes

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Langreo 1–0 Llanes LANGREO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Langreo win51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.360

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Langreo win at 51%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Langreo 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–25
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Langreo v Llanes
  4. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Langreo win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Langreo 0–0 Llanes
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Langreo 0–0 Llanes
  7. 48′We said Langreo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–38–22
  8. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Langreo win 39%)
  9. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 36–43–21
  10. 59′We said Langreo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–46–20
  11. 63′Langreo score on 63′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–3
  12. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Langreo 1–0 Llanes
  13. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Langreo win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
  14. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Langreo win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 50%)
  15. 64′We said Langreo at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–16–3
  16. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Langreo win: 51% at kick-off, 82% now
  17. 72′We said Langreo at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  18. 80′We said Langreo at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  19. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Langreo win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
  20. 87′We said Langreo at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  21. FTFULL TIME Langreo 1–0 Llanes
  22. FTLangreo 1–0 Llanes · Langreo win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Langreo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Langreo 51%, draw 24%, Llanes 25%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Langreo v LlanesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Langreo win51%
Draw24%
Llanes win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Langreo

Llanes

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
13Langreo7−36
17Llanes7−74

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · langreo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
51% The market–
Us51%

We make Langreo a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Langreo v Llanes1.79 – 1.17
Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 13 SeptW2 D3 L1 · W0 D4 L2
Table places · points 6 v 413 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:29
Our probability · Langreo win

Published at 52%, 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Langreo win51%––
Draw24%––
Llanes win25%––
Over 2.5 goals56%––
Both teams to score57%––
Over 1.5 goals79%––
Over 3.5 goals34%––
Langreo or draw75%––
Langreo clean sheet32%––
Llanes clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%
0123450 6.3 5.6 3.6 1 8.8 11.3 6.1 2.5 2 8.3 9.3 5.4 2.1 3 5.0 5.6 3.2 4 2.3 2.6 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Langreo down, Llanes across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 13 Sept

LANGREO

DWWDLD2–2 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

LLANES

LDDDLD1–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Sporting Gijón II7+917
2Covadonga7+1216
3Condal7+815
4Mosconia7+312
5Siero7+312
6Caudal7+212
7Praviano7+511
8Gijón Industrial7+311
9Lealtad7+211
10Colunga7−211
11San Martín7−39
12Avilés Stadium7−67
13Langreo7−36
14L'Entregu7−75
15Ceares7−54
16Astur7−54
17Llanes7−74
18Andes7−92

The competition's standings before kick-off.