L'Entregu v San Martín prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:01

L'Entregu 1–1 San Martín L'ENTREGU WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said L'Entregu win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.733

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

L'Entregu are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: L'Entregu 41%, draw 30%, San Martín 28%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on L'Entregu v San MartínBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

L'Entregu win41%

Draw30%

San Martín win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

L'Entregu

San Martín

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	San Martín	6	−3	8
17	L'Entregu	6	−7	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · l'entregu winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make L'Entregu a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · L'Entregu v San Martín~~1.21 – 0.95

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 8~~17 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
L'Entregu win	41%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
San Martín win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
L'Entregu or draw	72%	–	–
L'Entregu clean sheet	39%	–	–
San Martín clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 12.7 10.3 5.2 1 13.3 13.6 6.1 2 8.4 7.8 3.7 3 3.5 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+L'Entregu down, San Martín across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

L'Entregu at home: 0.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). San Martín away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for L'Entregu, 0.95 for San Martín. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–0 LEN · LEN 1–0 SAN · SAN 0–0 LEN · LEN 3–2 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

L'ENTREGU

LWLLDL0–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 0–3

SAN MARTÍN

LLDDWW0–2 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting Gijón II	7	+9	17
2	Covadonga	7	+12	16
3	Condal	7	+8	15
4	Mosconia	7	+3	12
5	Siero	7	+3	12
6	Caudal	7	+2	12
7	Praviano	7	+5	11
8	Gijón Industrial	7	+3	11
9	Lealtad	7	+2	11
10	Colunga	7	−2	11
11	San Martín	6	−3	8
12	Avilés Stadium	6	−6	6
13	Langreo	6	−3	5
14	Ceares	7	−5	4
15	Astur	7	−5	4
16	Llanes	7	−7	4
17	L'Entregu	6	−7	4
18	Andes	7	−9	2