Gijón Industrial v Covadonga prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Gijón IndustrialDrawCovadonga

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Covadonga 70%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Covadonga are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gijón Industrial 13%, draw 17%, Covadonga 70%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Gijón Industrial v CovadongaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Gijón Industrial win13%

Draw17%

Covadonga win70%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gijón Industrial

Covadonga

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Covadonga	7	+12	16
8	Gijón Industrial	7	+3	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · covadonga winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

70% The market–

Us70%

We make Covadonga a 70% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–2.6, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gijón Industrial v Covadonga~~0.98 – 2.58

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 16~~8 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gijón Industrial win	13%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Covadonga win	70%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	–	–
Gijón Industrial or draw	30%	–	–
Gijón Industrial clean sheet	9%	–	–
Covadonga clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 9.3%

0123450 3.7 7.2 9.3 7.8 5.1 2.81 2.7 7.8 8.9 7.4 4.8 2.62 3.6 4.4 3.6 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gijón Industrial down, Covadonga across0–5 goals a side shown (94.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,609 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gijón Industrial at home: 2.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Covadonga away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Gijón Industrial, 2.58 for Covadonga. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~COV 6–0 GIJ · GIJ 1–3 COV · GIJ 1–3 COV · COV 3–1 GIJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 13 Sept

GIJÓN INDUSTRIAL

LDLWDW0–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 1–0

COVADONGA

DWWWLW2–2 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting Gijón II	8	+10	20
2	Covadonga	7	+12	16
3	Condal	7	+8	15
4	Mosconia	7	+3	12
5	Siero	8	+2	12
6	Caudal	7	+2	12
7	Praviano	7	+5	11
8	Gijón Industrial	7	+3	11
9	Lealtad	7	+2	11
10	Colunga	7	−2	11
11	Langreo	8	−2	9
12	San Martín	7	−3	9
13	Avilés Stadium	7	−6	7
14	L'Entregu	7	−7	5
15	Ceares	7	−5	4
16	Astur	7	−5	4
17	Llanes	8	−8	4
18	Andes	7	−9	2