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Gijón Industrial v Astur

Gijón Industrial

2–2Full time

Astur

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Gijón Industrial 2–2 Astur GIJÓN INDUSTRIAL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gijón Industrial win~~45%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.834

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.820

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gijón Industrial win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Gijón Industrial was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–25–29
9′Much as we predicted: Gijón Industrial was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–29
14′A goal for Astur on 12′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 20–24–56
19′A goal for Astur on 12′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 19–24–57
24′We said Gijón Industrial at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–24–58
31′Gijón Industrial find the net on 29′. 1–2. 1–2 · 16–25–60
40′Gijón Industrial find the net on 29′. 1–2. 1–2 · 13–25–62
45′We said Gijón Industrial at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 1–2 · 12–25–64
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Gijón Industrial win: 45% at kick-off, 16% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Gijón Industrial win: 45% at kick-off, 13% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Gijón Industrial win: 45% at kick-off, 12% now
45′HALF-TIME Gijón Industrial 1–2 Astur
46′SECOND HALF Gijón Industrial 1–2 Astur
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Gijón Industrial win: 45% at kick-off, 12% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Astur win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Gijón Industrial win 12%)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Gijón Industrial win: 45% at kick-off, 12% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Astur win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Gijón Industrial win 12%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Gijón Industrial win: 45% at kick-off, 12% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Astur win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Gijón Industrial win 12%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Gijón Industrial win: 45% at kick-off, 12% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Astur win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Gijón Industrial win 12%)
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Gijón Industrial win: 45% at kick-off, 12% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Astur win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Gijón Industrial win 12%)
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Gijón Industrial win: 45% at kick-off, 12% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Astur win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Gijón Industrial win 12%)
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Gijón Industrial 2–2 Astur
FTFULL TIME Gijón Industrial 2–2 Astur
FTGijón Industrial 2–2 Astur · Gijón Industrial win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Gijón Industrial win45%

Draw26%

Astur win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gijón Industrial

Astur

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Gijón Industrial	5	+2	7
17	Astur	5	−5	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gijón industrial winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

45% The market50%

Us45%

~~Market~~50%

We make Gijón Industrial a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gijón industrial win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gijón Industrial win	45%	50%	−5
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Astur win	29%	23%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	52%	45%	+6
Both teams to score	54%	49%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	76%	70%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	30%	26%	+4
Gijón Industrial or draw	71%	77%	−6
Gijón Industrial clean sheet	31%	–	–
Astur clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.4 7.2 4.7 1 9.4 12.1 6.8 2.8 2 7.6 8.7 5.2 2.1 3 4.0 4.6 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gijón Industrial down, Astur across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,593 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.1% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Gijón Industrial at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Astur away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Gijón Industrial, 1.19 for Astur. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

GIJÓN INDUSTRIAL

WWLDLW6–2 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 3–0

ASTUR

LLLDD0–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Covadonga	5	+10	13
2	Sporting Gijón II	5	+5	13
3	Mosconia	6	+7	12
4	Siero	6	+6	12
5	Condal	5	+6	11
6	Colunga	6	+2	11
7	Caudal	5	+2	10
8	Lealtad	6	+2	10
9	Langreo	6	+1	8
10	Gijón Industrial	5	+2	7
11	Praviano	6	−2	5
12	San Martín	5	−5	5
13	Ceares	6	−4	4
14	L'Entregu	6	−7	4
15	Llanes	5	−6	3
16	Avilés Stadium	5	−7	3
17	Astur	5	−5	2
18	Andes	5	−7	1