Covadonga v Mosconia prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:08

Covadonga 4–0 Mosconia COVADONGA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Covadonga win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.278

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Covadonga win at 57%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Covadonga 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–25–18
1′KICK-OFF Covadonga v Mosconia
33′Covadonga find the net on 32′. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–14–4
33′We said Covadonga at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–14–4
33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Covadonga 1–0 Mosconia
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Covadonga win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
34′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 82–14–4
45′HALF-TIME Covadonga 1–0 Mosconia
46′SECOND HALF Covadonga 1–0 Mosconia
50′A goal for Covadonga on 49′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Covadonga 2–0 Mosconia
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Covadonga win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
51′We said Covadonga at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
65′Covadonga score on 64′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
65′We said Covadonga at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Covadonga 3–0 Mosconia
66′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
94′Covadonga find the net on 90′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
94′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Covadonga 4–0 Mosconia
FTFULL TIME Covadonga 4–0 Mosconia
FTCovadonga 4–0 Mosconia · Covadonga win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Covadonga are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Covadonga 57%, draw 25%, Mosconia 18%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Covadonga v MosconiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Covadonga win57%

Draw25%

Mosconia win18%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:30

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Covadonga

Mosconia

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Covadonga	6	+8	13
4	Mosconia	6	+7	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · covadonga winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Covadonga a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Covadonga v Mosconia~~1.75 – 0.87

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 13 v 12~~3 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Covadonga win	57%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Mosconia win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Covadonga or draw	82%	–	–
Covadonga clean sheet	42%	–	–
Mosconia clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.2%

0123450 8.3 5.9 2.9 1 12.2 11.5 4.8 2 10.9 9.3 4.1 3 6.4 5.4 2.4 4 2.9 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Covadonga down, Mosconia across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.12 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Covadonga at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Mosconia away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Covadonga, 0.87 for Mosconia. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.12

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~COV 2–1 MOS · MOS 0–0 COV · MOS 1–2 COV · COV 1–0 MOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

COVADONGA

WDWWWL4–0 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–4

MOSCONIA

WWDWDD5–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Condal	6	+8	14
2	Sporting Gijón II	6	+5	14
3	Covadonga	6	+8	13
4	Mosconia	6	+7	12
5	Siero	6	+6	12
6	Colunga	6	+2	11
7	Caudal	6	+2	11
8	Lealtad	6	+2	10
9	Praviano	6	+2	8
10	Gijón Industrial	6	+2	8
11	San Martín	6	−3	8
12	Avilés Stadium	6	−6	6
13	Langreo	6	−3	5
14	Ceares	6	−4	4
15	L'Entregu	6	−7	4
16	Astur	6	−5	3
17	Llanes	6	−7	3
18	Andes	6	−9	1