Condal v Ceares prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CondalDrawCeares

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Condal 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Condal just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Condal 36%, draw 30%, Ceares 34%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Condal v CearesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Condal win36%

Draw30%

Ceares win34%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Condal

Ceares

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Condal	7	+8	15
15	Ceares	7	−5	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · condal winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Condal a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Condal v Ceares~~1.16 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 15 v 4~~3 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Condal win	36%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Ceares win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Condal or draw	66%	–	–
Condal clean sheet	34%	–	–
Ceares clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 11.7 10.8 6.4 2.4 1 11.3 13.6 7.1 2.7 2 7.0 7.4 4.1 3 2.8 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Condal down, Ceares across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,609 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Condal at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ceares away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Condal, 1.10 for Ceares. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CEA 2–0 CON · CON 2–1 CEA · CON 2–0 CEA · CEA 2–1 CON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 13 Sept

CONDAL

WDWDWD4–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

CEARES

LLLLDL1–2 · 3–4 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting Gijón II	8	+10	20
2	Covadonga	7	+12	16
3	Condal	7	+8	15
4	Mosconia	7	+3	12
5	Siero	8	+2	12
6	Caudal	7	+2	12
7	Praviano	7	+5	11
8	Gijón Industrial	7	+3	11
9	Lealtad	7	+2	11
10	Colunga	7	−2	11
11	Langreo	8	−2	9
12	San Martín	7	−3	9
13	Avilés Stadium	7	−6	7
14	L'Entregu	7	−7	5
15	Ceares	7	−5	4
16	Astur	7	−5	4
17	Llanes	8	−8	4
18	Andes	7	−9	2