Condal v Andes prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 16:32

Condal 2–0 Andes CONDAL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Condal win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.478

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Condal win44%

Draw30%

Andes win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Condal

Andes

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Condal	5	+6	11
18	Andes	5	−7	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · condal winPublished 11 Oct 23:32

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Condal a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Condal win	44%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Andes win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Condal or draw	73%	–	–
Condal clean sheet	40%	–	–
Andes clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.2%

0123450 12.2 9.6 4.8 1 13.2 13.2 5.9 2 8.8 7.9 3.7 3 3.9 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Condal down, Andes across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,593 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.1% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Condal at home: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Andes away: 0.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Condal, 0.94 for Andes. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

CONDAL

LWWDWD0–2 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

ANDES

LLDLL1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Covadonga	5	+10	13
2	Sporting Gijón II	5	+5	13
3	Mosconia	6	+7	12
4	Siero	6	+6	12
5	Condal	5	+6	11
6	Colunga	6	+2	11
7	Caudal	5	+2	10
8	Lealtad	6	+2	10
9	Langreo	6	+1	8
10	Gijón Industrial	5	+2	7
11	Praviano	6	−2	5
12	San Martín	5	−5	5
13	Ceares	6	−4	4
14	L'Entregu	6	−7	4
15	Llanes	5	−6	3
16	Avilés Stadium	5	−7	3
17	Astur	5	−5	2
18	Andes	5	−7	1