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Colunga v Praviano

Colunga

5–5Full time

Praviano

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Colunga 5–5 Praviano COLUNGA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Colunga win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.780

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Colunga win39%

Draw28%

Praviano win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · colunga winPublished 10 Oct 18:18

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Colunga a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Colunga win	39%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Praviano win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Colunga or draw	67%	–	–
Colunga clean sheet	31%	–	–
Praviano clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.0 9.0 5.8 2.4 1 9.9 13.1 7.4 3.0 2 7.0 8.1 4.9 2.0 3 3.1 3.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Colunga down, Praviano across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,589 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 1.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Colunga at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Praviano away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Colunga, 1.21 for Praviano. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~COL 0–2 PRA · PRA 1–0 COL · PRA 1–1 COL · COL 1–1 PRA

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

COLUNGA

LWWWLD2–6 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 4–3 · 1–2 · 0–0

PRAVIANO

LLWLLD1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Covadonga	5	+10	13
2	Sporting Gijón II	5	+5	13
3	Mosconia	5	+7	11
4	Condal	5	+6	11
5	Colunga	5	+2	10
6	Caudal	5	+2	10
7	Siero	5	+3	9
8	Langreo	5	+2	8
9	Gijón Industrial	5	+2	7
10	Lealtad	5	+1	7
11	San Martín	5	−5	5
12	Praviano	5	−2	4
13	L'Entregu	5	−4	4
14	Ceares	5	−4	3
15	Llanes	5	−6	3
16	Avilés Stadium	5	−7	3
17	Astur	5	−5	2
18	Andes	5	−7	1