Colunga v Lealtad prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ColungaDrawLealtad

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Lealtad 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lealtad are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Colunga 25%, draw 27%, Lealtad 48%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Colunga v LealtadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Colunga win25%

Draw27%

Lealtad win48%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Colunga

Lealtad

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Lealtad	7	+2	11
10	Colunga	7	−2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lealtad winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Lealtad a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Colunga v Lealtad~~1.05 – 1.58

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 11~~10 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Colunga win	25%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Lealtad win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Colunga or draw	52%	–	–
Colunga clean sheet	22%	–	–
Lealtad clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.5 10.8 8.8 4.7 1 7.1 12.4 8.9 4.7 2 4.1 6.1 4.6 2.4 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Colunga down, Lealtad across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,607 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Colunga at home: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Lealtad away: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Colunga, 1.58 for Lealtad. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~LEA 3–2 COL · COL 1–4 LEA · LEA 0–1 COL · COL 0–2 LEA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 12 Sept

COLUNGA

WWLDDL2–1 · 4–3 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 5–5 · 0–4

LEALTAD

LLDWWD1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting Gijón II	7	+9	17
2	Covadonga	7	+12	16
3	Condal	7	+8	15
4	Mosconia	7	+3	12
5	Siero	7	+3	12
6	Caudal	7	+2	12
7	Praviano	7	+5	11
8	Gijón Industrial	7	+3	11
9	Lealtad	7	+2	11
10	Colunga	7	−2	11
11	San Martín	7	−3	9
12	Avilés Stadium	7	−6	7
13	Langreo	7	−3	6
14	L'Entregu	7	−7	5
15	Ceares	7	−5	4
16	Astur	7	−5	4
17	Llanes	7	−7	4
18	Andes	7	−9	2