Ceares v Gijón Industrial prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Ceares 0–1 Gijón Industrial CEARES WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ceares win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.851

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ceares win at 49%.
1′KICK-OFF Ceares v Gijón Industrial
2′Little has changed for our model: Ceares 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ceares win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
45′HALF-TIME Ceares 0–0 Gijón Industrial
46′SECOND HALF Ceares 0–0 Gijón Industrial
51′We said Ceares at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–40–23
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Ceares win 36%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 35–43–22
57′We said Ceares at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–44–21
66′We said Ceares at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–53–18
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Ceares win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
72′We said Ceares at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–16
77′We said Ceares at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Ceares win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
81′We said Ceares at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
85′We said Ceares at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–6
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Ceares win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
92′We said Ceares at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–3
96′Gijón Industrial find the net on 90′. 0–1. 0–1 · 0–2–98
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Ceares 0–1 Gijón Industrial
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Gijón Industrial win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
FTFULL TIME Ceares 0–1 Gijón Industrial
FTCeares 0–1 Gijón Industrial · Ceares win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ceares are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ceares 49%, draw 25%, Gijón Industrial 26%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Ceares v Gijón IndustrialBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ceares win49%

Draw25%

Gijón Industrial win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ceares

Gijón Industrial

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Gijón Industrial	6	+2	8
14	Ceares	6	−4	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ceares winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Ceares a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ceares v Gijón Industrial~~1.75 – 1.21

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 8~~14 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ceares win	49%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Gijón Industrial win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Ceares or draw	74%	–	–
Ceares clean sheet	31%	–	–
Gijón Industrial clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.2 5.9 3.8 1 8.7 11.3 6.4 2.6 2 7.9 9.2 5.5 2.3 3 4.6 5.4 3.2 4 2.1 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ceares down, Gijón Industrial across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ceares at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Gijón Industrial away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Ceares, 1.21 for Gijón Industrial. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~GIJ 2–1 CEA · CEA 1–0 GIJ · GIJ 1–5 CEA · CEA 2–0 GIJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

CEARES

WLLLLD2–1 · 1–2 · 3–4 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–2

GIJÓN INDUSTRIAL

WLDLWD2–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Condal	6	+8	14
2	Sporting Gijón II	6	+5	14
3	Covadonga	6	+8	13
4	Mosconia	6	+7	12
5	Siero	6	+6	12
6	Colunga	6	+2	11
7	Caudal	6	+2	11
8	Lealtad	6	+2	10
9	Praviano	6	+2	8
10	Gijón Industrial	6	+2	8
11	San Martín	6	−3	8
12	Avilés Stadium	6	−6	6
13	Langreo	6	−3	5
14	Ceares	6	−4	4
15	L'Entregu	6	−7	4
16	Astur	6	−5	3
17	Llanes	6	−7	3
18	Andes	6	−9	1